Research
Data-driven analysis of prediction markets.
In-depth research on trader behavior, market microstructure, and the analytics behind 0xInsider's scoring models.
What Separates Winning Polymarket Traders from Everyone Else
Meloune has a 79.6% win rate across 113 markets — and has lost $42,254. SeriouslySirius wins just 50.3% of the time across 6,339 markets — and has made $3.6 million. Win rate is the most watched metric in prediction markets, and the most misleading. Here is what actually separates the top from the rest, based on 26 million trades and 1,241 graded wallets.
15-Minute Markets on Polymarket: 86% Win Rate, Negative P&L — Only 33% of Traders Profit
Buying Bitcoin Up or Down shares at 95 cents wins 86% of the time — and still loses money. Across 4,838 traders and 2.7 million positions, only 33% of short-duration traders are profitable.
How to See the Biggest Kalshi Trades in Real Time
Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the United States. Large trades on Kalshi carry a different weight than trades on unregulated platforms — they are backed by verified identities, real dollars, and regulatory oversight. Here is how to see those trades the moment they happen.
How gabagool22 Turned Crypto Volatility Into $788K Profit on Polymarket
An algorithmic trader averaging 365 trades per market, a 99.5% win rate, and nearly $800K in profit — all from Bitcoin and Ethereum price markets. Here is exactly how gabagool22 does it.
Whale Tracking on Prediction Markets: Where to See Live Trades and Why They Move Prices
A $200K buy hits a quiet market at 2 AM. Within hours, the price has moved 15 cents. By the time you check your portfolio, the opportunity is gone. This guide shows you where the whales trade, how to read their moves, and what their activity tells you about where markets are heading.
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