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Research on Polymarket traders and markets

Studies that each answer one question: how often home teams win, whether large buyers beat the price they paid, and whether wallet grades predict results. They run on the same Polymarket data as the leaderboard.

40articles4categoriesLatestSep 14, 2026
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40 articles in all categories

Studies and analysis

Market-structure breakdowns, trader-behavior studies, and pricing analysis built from Polymarket data.

  1. 9 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    Home field advantage, measured: 11,581 US league games and 13,327 soccer matches on Polymarket

    Across 11,581 US league games, home teams won 55.6% in the NBA, 54.4% in the NHL, 54.9% in the WNBA, 53.7% in MLB, and 53.7% in the NFL, and club soccer home sides won 43.6% of 13,327 matches. 104,445 large bets on home and away sides both came in within a point of what they paid, so the edge is already in the price and adding a home bonus counts it twice.

    Large bets on home teams paid 62.0 cents and won 61.7% of the time

    Average price paid for each side of large moneyline and team-to-win buys, read as a chance, against how often that side won. Every league pooled.

    • Price paid
    • Won

    57,130 home and 47,315 away buys. Polymarket large-trade alerts, buys at 2 to 98 cents, April 2 to September 13, 2026; smallest buy about $3,000 until July 2, 2026 and $10,000 after. ESPN's schedule supplies the home team; neutral sites left out. Recount of September 14, 2026.

    Large bets on home teams paid 62.0 cents and won 61.7% of the time
    CategoryPrice paidWon
    Home side62.0%61.7%
    Away side54.7%54.1%
    ResearchRead article: Home field advantage, measured: 11,581 US league games and 13,327 soccer matches on Polymarket
  2. 9 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    NRFI, measured: 2,237 MLB first innings and their first-pitch prices on Polymarket

    Across 2,237 MLB games on Polymarket from September 2025 to September 12, 2026, no run scored in the first inning 49.4% of the time. In the 2,234 games with a first-pitch price, the no-run side cost 51.4 cents on average and hit 49.3% of the time: $1 on NRFI every game lost 3.95% before fees and 6.38% after Polymarket's sports taker fee.

    The market charged 51.4 cents for a 49.3% shot

    The no-run side's average price at first pitch, read as a probability, against how often no run scored.

    2,234 priced MLB games, September 4, 2025 to September 12, 2026. Polymarket price history and MLB Stats API linescores, run 22:28 UTC on September 13, 2026.

    The market charged 51.4 cents for a 49.3% shot
    Price at first pitch51.4%
    No run happened49.3%
    ResearchRead article: NRFI, measured: 2,237 MLB first innings and their first-pitch prices on Polymarket
  3. 8 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    How often football underdogs win: 1,193 NFL and college football games at kickoff prices on Polymarket

    Across 1,193 regular-season and postseason NFL and college football games on Polymarket, checked against ESPN's final scores, NFL underdogs priced at 33.0 cents won 32.2% of the time and college football underdogs priced at 27.9 cents won 26.9%, with favorites on price at every level from 50 to 95 cents. $1 on every underdog came out behind after Polymarket's taker fee, inside the noise.

    Season by season, underdogs won within 3 points of their kickoff price

    The underdog's average kickoff price, read as a chance, against how often underdogs won, by league and season (July to June).

    • Kickoff price
    • Underdogs won

    NFL 2024: 276 games; NFL 2025: 284 games; College 2025: 569 games; College 2026: 62 games. The 2026 college season is its opening weeks; the NFL's 2 games of 2026 are left out. $10,000 or more traded on the moneyline before kickoff. Kickoff prices from Polymarket's public price history; results from ESPN's scoreboard. Settled moneylines exported 23:30 UTC on September 13, 2026.

    Season by season, underdogs won within 3 points of their kickoff price
    CategoryKickoff priceUnderdogs won
    NFL 202433.3%30.4%
    NFL 202532.7%33.8%
    College 202528.6%27.2%
    College 202621.8%24.2%
    ResearchRead article: How often football underdogs win: 1,193 NFL and college football games at kickoff prices on Polymarket
  4. 7 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    Esports first-map winners on Polymarket: 9,501 best-of-three series in CS2, Valorant, Dota 2, and LoL

    Polymarket priced the favorite in 9,161 best-of-three esports series at 68 cents, and it won 68.1% of them. Then Map 1 moved it: favorites that took the first map won the series 87.2% of the time, and favorites that dropped it won 34.3%.

    68-cent favorites won 68.1%: 87.2% after taking Map 1, 34.3% after dropping it

    The favorite's average starting price, read as a probability, against how often favorites won the series: overall, after winning Map or Game 1, and after losing it.

    9,161 priced best-of-three CS2, Dota 2, LoL and Valorant series, November 4, 2025 to September 14, 2026. Polymarket settlements exported 16:10 UTC on September 14, 2026; starting prices from Polymarket's public price history, 16:22 UTC on September 14, 2026.

    68-cent favorites won 68.1%: 87.2% after taking Map 1, 34.3% after dropping it
    Price68.0%
    Won68.1%
    Took Map 187.2%
    Dropped Map 134.3%
    ResearchRead article: Esports first-map winners on Polymarket: 9,501 best-of-three series in CS2, Valorant, Dota 2, and LoL
  5. 6 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    Favorite-longshot pricing in NBA markets on Polymarket: 63,037 large bets, checked against the result

    Large NBA buyers on Polymarket paid 59.5 cents on average and won 59.2% of the time across 63,037 bets from April 2 to July 24, 2026. Longshots, favorites, spreads, totals and in-play bets all landed close to their price, and no cut cleared the noise.

    Held to settlement, 30-40¢ buys made $30.5 million; the other nine together lost $11.4 million

    Profit or loss on every buy in each 10-cent price bucket if held to settlement, before fees: stake times (won / price - 1), summed.

    63,037 large Polymarket NBA buys on 1,841 settled markets, April 2 to July 24, 2026; $19.1 million in all. 0xinsider's large-trade feed and Polymarket settlements; read-only run at 12:52 UTC on October 10, 2026.

    Held to settlement, 30-40¢ buys made $30.5 million; the other nine together lost $11.4 million
    0-10¢-$62.0K
    10-20¢+$4.2M
    20-30¢+$1.1M
    30-40¢+$30.5M
    40-50¢-$1.2M
    50-60¢+$3.3M
    60-70¢-$11.0M
    70-80¢-$1.9M
    80-90¢-$4.8M
    90-100¢-$1.1M
    ResearchRead article: Favorite-longshot pricing in NBA markets on Polymarket: 63,037 large bets, checked against the result
  6. 12 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    How many Polymarket sports traders are profitable? A census of 49,118 wallets

    On October 11, 2026, 43.7% of 49,118 Polymarket wallets with 20 or more settled sports markets were in profit, the median wallet was $46 down, and the top 1% held 77.7% of the winnings. That is far above the few percent sportsbooks quote for their own customers, and the wallets that are up are the ones that paid less than the outcome was worth. Corrected October 11, 2026: the September census put the share at 48.8%.

    21,459 wallets in profit won $824 million; 27,646 at a loss lost $485 million

    Realized sports P&L summed over the wallets in profit, over the wallets at a loss, and over the whole population, in US dollars.

    49,118 Polymarket wallets with 20 or more settled sports markets as of October 11, 2026, read-only run 14:01 UTC on October 11, 2026. The 13 wallets at exactly zero are in the net only.

    21,459 wallets in profit won $824 million; 27,646 at a loss lost $485 million
    Won+$824.1M
    Lost-$484.9M
    Net+$339.3M
    ResearchRead article: How many Polymarket sports traders are profitable? A census of 49,118 wallets
  7. 12 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    Fading the crowd on Polymarket sports markets: 1,150 games where 90% or more of the D and F money sat on one side

    In 1,150 Polymarket sports markets from June 1 to September 12, 2026, where 90% or more of the D and F wallets' pre-kickoff dollars sat on one side, that side was priced at 64.5 cents and won 62.3% of the time: -2.25 points, with an interval that reaches zero. The same consensus among S, A and B wallets was in the price. Corrected October 7, 2026.

    Whichever crowd agreed, it agreed on a favorite that won a little less often than priced

    Markets where 90% or more of a cohort's pre-kickoff dollars sat on one side: the average price that cohort paid for its side, read as a probability, against how often that side won.

    • Price paid
    • Won

    1,150 markets with a one-sided D and F crowd and 1,391 with a one-sided S, A and B crowd. Edge intervals (95%): D and F -5.11 to +0.60 points, S, A and B -3.61 to +1.11. A market counts with $5,000 or more of a cohort's money across two or more buys. 74,189 large pre-kickoff Polymarket sports buys, June 1 to September 12, 2026, graded at the trade; smallest buy about $3,000 until July 2, 2026 and $10,000 after. Run 14:18 UTC on October 7, 2026.

    Whichever crowd agreed, it agreed on a favorite that won a little less often than priced
    CategoryPrice paidWon
    D and F agreed64.5%62.3%
    S, A and B agreed68.0%66.7%
    ResearchRead article: Fading the crowd on Polymarket sports markets: 1,150 games where 90% or more of the D and F money sat on one side
  8. 14 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    Over or Under? 21,863 Polymarket games and 47,121 large bets, checked against the result

    Across 47,121 large Polymarket buys on game totals, Under buyers paid 58.4 cents and won 58.2% and Over buyers paid 56.5 and won 55.6%: neither side beat its price. How often a total goes Under depends on the line. On soccer's standard 2.5 goals the Over hit 52.8% of 9,731 matches since April 2, 2026, and esports series went Under 2.5 games 56.4% of the time.

    Overs cost 56.5 cents and won 55.6%. Unders cost 58.4 and won 58.2%

    The average price large buyers paid for each side, read as a probability, beside the share of those buys that won.

    • Price paid
    • Won

    47,121 large buys on Polymarket game totals with a kickoff from April 2 to September 13, 2026, settled Over or Under; smallest buy about $3,000 until July 2, 2026 and $10,000 after. Read-only query run 12:48 UTC on October 10, 2026.

    Overs cost 56.5 cents and won 55.6%. Unders cost 58.4 and won 58.2%
    CategoryPrice paidWon
    Bought the Over (22,703)56.5%55.6%
    Bought the Under (24,418)58.4%58.2%
    ResearchRead article: Over or Under? 21,863 Polymarket games and 47,121 large bets, checked against the result
  9. 14 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    How often soccer matches end in a draw: 17,953 settled Polymarket matches, by league

    Of 17,953 settled Polymarket draw markets since August 24, 2024, 25.9% resolved Yes, give or take 0.64 points, from 18.4% in the Champions League to 31.0% in Argentina's Primera División. Large buyers of the draw from April came in 4.0 points ahead of the price, on an interval that does not clear zero once each match counts once.

    Before kickoff the draw cost 27.3 cents and landed 28.6% of the time

    The average price large buyers paid for the draw before kickoff, read as a probability, against how often those matches drew, each match counted once; and the draw rate of every settled match.

    350 draw markets with a large Yes buy before kickoff, April 2 to September 13, 2026; 17,953 settled draw markets from August 24, 2024. Read-only query run 18:32 UTC on September 13, 2026.

    Before kickoff the draw cost 27.3 cents and landed 28.6% of the time
    Price paid27.3%
    Those matches drew28.6%
    Every settled match drew25.9%
    ResearchRead article: How often soccer matches end in a draw: 17,953 settled Polymarket matches, by league
  10. 12 min readUpdated Oct 13, 2026

    Cashing out on Polymarket sports: 38,601 large sells, checked against the final result

    Across 38,601 large sells on Polymarket sports markets from April 2 to September 13, 2026, sellers got 64.1 cents on average for outcomes that went on to win 64.9% of the time: 0.87 of a point short of fair, on an interval that includes zero. The costly exits were World Cup futures, Spain above all, sold 236 times at 15.3 cents before Spain won the tournament.

    Sellers got 64.1 cents for outcomes that won 64.9% of the time

    Average price of large sells and large buys in cents, read as a probability, beside how often the side traded went on to win.

    • Average price
    • Side won

    38,601 sells and 417,568 buys on Polymarket sports markets, April 2 to September 13, 2026, settled yes or no. Read-only run, 12:32 UTC on October 10, 2026.

    Sellers got 64.1 cents for outcomes that won 64.9% of the time
    CategoryAverage priceSide won
    Large sells64.1%64.9%
    Large buys60.6%60.9%
    ResearchRead article: Cashing out on Polymarket sports: 38,601 large sells, checked against the final result
  11. 11 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    Both teams to score: 13,071 settled Polymarket soccer matches, by league and by half

    Of 13,071 settled both teams to score markets on Polymarket since October 24, 2025, 54.4% resolved Yes, give or take 0.85 points, with MLS and the Bundesliga near 63% and Serie A and Argentina's Primera División under 47%. Large bets on both teams to score came in close to their prices on both sides.

    MLS 63.4%, Argentina 44.6%: the league moved the rate 18.8 points, the kickoff month 4.1

    Share of settled both teams to score markets that resolved Yes: the highest and lowest competition, and the highest and lowest kickoff month, against every match.

    11 competitions with 250 or more settled markets, half-widths 4.7 to 6.0 pts (19:41 UTC on September 13, 2026); 11 kickoff months with 300 or more, re-counted 12:44 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    MLS 63.4%, Argentina 44.6%: the league moved the rate 18.8 points, the kickoff month 4.1
    MLS63.4%
    Dec 202556.9%
    Every match54.4%
    Mar 202652.8%
    Argentina44.6%
    ResearchRead article: Both teams to score: 13,071 settled Polymarket soccer matches, by league and by half
  12. 11 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    Win the first set, win the match? 26,900 settled Polymarket tennis matches

    In 26,900 settled Polymarket singles matches from November 9, 2025 to October 10, 2026, the player who won the first set won the match 82.9% of the time, give or take 0.45 points: 85.3% on the ITF tour, 80.4% in best-of-three ATP matches and 74.6% in best of five. A best-of-three match went to a third set 31.8% of the time, and when the first two sets were split, the player who won the second set took the decider 53.9% of the time.

    On the same matches, the second-set winner won 85.8% and the first-set winner 83.4%

    How often the winner of set 1 and the winner of set 2 went on to win the match, on best-of-three matches with both set markets settled, before and since September 14.

    • Won set 1
    • Won set 2

    Best-of-three singles matches with both set markets settled: 11,852 from November 9, 2025 to September 13, 2026, 5,974 from September 14 to October 10, 2026. Read-only run on a copy of production, 15:29 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    On the same matches, the second-set winner won 85.8% and the first-set winner 83.4%
    CategoryWon set 1Won set 2
    Nov 9 to Sep 1382.6%84.8%
    Sep 14 to Oct 1084.9%87.7%
    ResearchRead article: Win the first set, win the match? 26,900 settled Polymarket tennis matches
  13. 10 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    Laying or taking the points? 30,158 large Polymarket spread bets, and how often games are decided by one

    Across 30,158 large Polymarket spread buys from April 2 to September 13, 2026, laying the points came in 4.68 points ahead of the price, with a market-resampled interval from 0.25 to 9.12, and taking the points 2.82 behind. In games that list both teams at -1.5, 29.1% of MLB games were decided by one run, and soccer matches ended level 25.7% of the time.

    Basketball spreads cost 52.3 cents to lay and 51.7 to take. Laying won 57.6%, taking 46.2%

    Average price paid for each side of large basketball spread buys, read as a chance, against how often that side won.

    • Price paid
    • Won

    13,886 basketball spread buys, 13,314 of them on the NBA. Large buys at 2 to 98 cents, April 2 to September 13, 2026; smallest buy about $3,000 until July 2, 2026 and $10,000 after. Polymarket large-trade alerts and settled spread markets, read-only query run 20:45 UTC on September 13, 2026.

    Basketball spreads cost 52.3 cents to lay and 51.7 to take. Laying won 57.6%, taking 46.2%
    CategoryPrice paidWon
    Laying the points52.3%57.6%
    Taking the points51.7%46.2%
    ResearchRead article: Laying or taking the points? 30,158 large Polymarket spread bets, and how often games are decided by one
  14. 8 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    Do wallet grades predict Polymarket outcomes? 79,580 large buys, graded as of each trade

    On 79,580 Polymarket buys of $10,000 or more, each graded as of the trade, S wallets beat the price they paid by 1.73 points and A wallets by 1.12. B wallets lost 0.91. This corrects the September 12 version, which used grades written after the trade.

    Buys the old lookup promoted beat the price by 8.89 points; buys it demoted lost 15.06

    Win rate minus price paid, in percentage points, for the buys the September lookup filed under a grade the wallet did not hold when it traded.

    The published window, June 1 to September 11, 2026: 1,190 buys counted as S, A or B from wallets graded D or F at the trade (± 6.35), 852 counted as D or F from wallets graded S, A or B (± 4.81). Read-only replica reads of October 7, 2026, published in github.com/0xinsider/research (grade-vs-price).

    Buys the old lookup promoted beat the price by 8.89 points; buys it demoted lost 15.06
    Filed as S, A or B, were D or F+8.89 pts
    Filed as D or F, were S, A or B-15.06 pts
    ResearchRead article: Do wallet grades predict Polymarket outcomes? 79,580 large buys, graded as of each trade
  15. 15 min readUpdated Oct 17, 2026

    Favorite-longshot bias on Polymarket sports markets: 416,548 large bets, priced against the result

    Across 416,548 large Polymarket sports buys from April 2 to September 11, 2026, buyers paid 60.6 cents on average and won 60.9% of the time, about what the result was worth. The favorite-longshot bias every sportsbook dataset shows appears only under 10 cents, where buyers lost 56 cents of every dollar, and even there its interval reaches zero.

    Under 10 cents, a dollar came back as 44 cents. From 10 cents up, as $1.01

    What each dollar staked came back as at settlement, in cents, weighted by stake and before fees.

    2,040 buys under 10 cents and 414,508 from 10 to 98 cents: 416,548 large Polymarket sports buys, April 2 to September 11, 2026, on markets that settled yes or no; smallest buy about $3,000 until July 2, 2026 and $10,000 after. Run 12:24 UTC on October 10, 2026.

    Under 10 cents, a dollar came back as 44 cents. From 10 cents up, as $1.01
    Bought under 10¢44.0¢
    Bought at 10¢ to 98¢101.1¢
    ResearchRead article: Favorite-longshot bias on Polymarket sports markets: 416,548 large bets, priced against the result
  16. 14 min readUpdated Oct 15, 2026

    Sharp money in Polymarket sports markets: 161,128 graded bets, checked against the result

    Across 161,128 large Polymarket sports buys from June 1 to September 11, 2026, each graded as the wallet stood at the trade, wallets graded S, A or B came in +0.50 points against the price and wallets graded D or F -0.18; neither interval clears zero. In play the two are 2.45 points apart, and that gap does clear zero. This corrects the September 12 version, which used grades written after the trade.

    In play, S, A and B wallets beat D and F by 2.45 points. Before kickoff, by nothing you can measure

    The S, A and B edge minus the D and F edge, where each edge is win rate minus price paid, in percentage points.

    161,128 large Polymarket sports buys, June 1 to September 11, 2026, graded at the trade; smallest buy about $3,000 until July 2, 2026 and $10,000 after. Only the in-play gap's 95% interval stays above zero. Run 14:18 UTC on October 7, 2026.

    In play, S, A and B wallets beat D and F by 2.45 points. Before kickoff, by nothing you can measure
    All buys+0.69 pts
    Before kickoff-0.85 pts
    In play+2.45 pts
    ResearchRead article: Sharp money in Polymarket sports markets: 161,128 graded bets, checked against the result
  17. 14 min readUpdated Oct 17, 2026

    When large sports bets land on Polymarket: early money loses, and graded wallets bet live

    Half the money in 401,482 large Polymarket sports buys arrives after the game starts. Buys placed one to seven days early lost to the price by 2.19 points, and from a day out through the end of the game the market is calibrated. Graded as of each trade, the wallets 0xinsider grades S, A or B place half their sports buys in-play, and in the first hour of play they came in 3.9 points ahead of D and F wallets.

    Only 2% of the money arrives more than a day out, and that slice lost to the price

    Dollars staked on large sports buys, by when the buy landed against the game's scheduled start.

    401,482 large Polymarket sports buys, April 2 to September 11, 2026, settled yes or no after the trade, at 2 to 98 cents, with a kickoff on record. $7.94 billion in all. Read-only run on a copy of production, 12:26 UTC on October 10, 2026.

    Only 2% of the money arrives more than a day out, and that slice lost to the price
    More than a day before$155.8M
    Last 24 hours before$4.0B
    In play$3.8B
    ResearchRead article: When large sports bets land on Polymarket: early money loses, and graded wallets bet live
  18. 6 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    Every Polymarket combo ever traded

    We rebuilt every Polymarket combo from Polygon logs: 1,187,808 fills from 82,894 wallets by September 6, 2026. Settled buys returned 92.9¢ per dollar staked before fees, 53.27% of wallets with a settled combo never had one hit, and the biggest win belongs to a wallet that Polymarket had at -$2,194,412 all time on October 11, 2026.

    Combo stake peaked at $7.9M in the week of Jun 29 and has run $3.0M to $4.4M a week since August

    Dollars staked on combo buys each week, weeks starting Monday, UTC.

    1,220,878 taker buys, weeks of June 8 to September 28, 2026 (the last complete week before the read). Read-only query of the Polygon-rebuilt combo index run 14:08 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    Combo stake peaked at $7.9M in the week of Jun 29 and has run $3.0M to $4.4M a week since August
    CategoryStaked
    Jun 8$824K
    Jun 15$4.1M
    Jun 22$6.5M
    Jun 29$7.9M
    Jul 6$5.1M
    Jul 13$4.3M
    Jul 20$2.5M
    Jul 27$3.7M
    Aug 3$3.5M
    Aug 10$4.1M
    Aug 17$4.4M
    Aug 24$3.9M
    Aug 31$3.7M
    Sep 7$3.8M
    Sep 14$3.7M
    Sep 21$3.0M
    Sep 28$3.7M
    ResearchRead article: Every Polymarket combo ever traded
  19. 4 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    Polymarket leaderboard P&L: why two tools disagree on one wallet

    A Polymarket P&L figure depends on who computed it and on what basis. On October 11, 2026, one wallet's all-time profit read $18.4 million on Polymarket's leaderboard and $46.0 million as a sum of its market rows. Our own retired rollup made that mistake, overstating wallets from about 4 to 13 times and flipping some signs. Before comparing two figures, check that they share a basis, a scope and a retrieval time.

    swisstony made $18.4 million, $20.9 million, $23.5 million or $46.0 million, depending on what you count

    One wallet's all-time profit on four bases: Polymarket's leaderboard, the 0xinsider profile headline, Polymarket's figure with fees added back, and the sum of its closed market rows.

    swisstony, Polymarket's profit curve at 08:46 UTC on October 11, 2026 (Polymarket Data API, read 14:09 UTC on October 11, 2026); 203,078 closed market rows from the 0xinsider database (Read-only query run 14:04 UTC on October 11, 2026).

    swisstony made $18.4 million, $20.9 million, $23.5 million or $46.0 million, depending on what you count
    Leaderboard (realized)$18.4M
    Profile headline$20.9M
    Before fees$23.5M
    Sum of market rows$46.0M
    AnalysisRead article: Polymarket leaderboard P&L: why two tools disagree on one wallet
  20. 5 min readUpdated Oct 13, 2026

    What a late large-trade alert costs, measured on 13,218 trades

    We measured what seeing a Polymarket large trade a day late costs, over 13,218 trades from September 10 to October 9, 2026. On sports it usually costs the whole trade: 96.4% of large sports trades settled within 24 hours. Where a market was still open a day later, the wait cost 1.12 cents a share on average, while the price moved 4.52 cents either way. Our free feed runs a day behind, so we are not neutral.

    96.4% of large sports trades settled within a day; 8.6% of the rest did

    Share of each group's large trades by how long their market took to settle after the fill, in percent; the free feed shows a trade once it is 24 hours old.

    • Settled within 6 hours
    • Settled in 6 to 24 hours
    • Settled after a day
    • Still open at the read

    11,530 sports and 1,688 other large trades, September 10 to October 9, 2026; settlement read at least 38 hours after the last fill. Read-only query run 14:06 UTC on October 11, 2026. For 9,520 of 13,218 trades (9,006 of 11,530 sports trades), no provider resolution clock was available and resolution uses the database recording time. These times are at or after settlement: median elapsed times are upper bounds and already-settled shares are lower bounds.

    96.4% of large sports trades settled within a day; 8.6% of the rest did
    CategorySettled within 6 hoursSettled in 6 to 24 hoursSettled after a dayStill open at the read
    Sports76.9%19.5%3.2%0.4%
    Everything else2.7%5.9%28.8%62.6%
    AnalysisRead article: What a late large-trade alert costs, measured on 13,218 trades
  21. 4 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    How suspicious Polymarket trades get flagged

    The 0xinsider radar flags a Polymarket trade when it scores 60 of 100 on one of three tracks: a fill of $30,000 or more backed by two of a new wallet, a long-shot price and a cluster; a new wallet's long shot; or a position split into many fills. From May 21 to October 10, 2026 it flagged 422 of 244,848 large trades, and 4 of 6,874 after a September 25 fix. Flagged long shots from new wallets won no more often than their price said. A flag marks a trade to review; it never proves anyone knew anything.

    Since the scorer's fix, 4 of 6,874 large trades were flagged

    Large trades the radar scored after its September 25 fix, narrowed to the main track's $30,000 size floor, then to that size at a long-shot price, The final flag row separately counts scores of 60 or more on any track; split-position flags need not belong to the long-shot subset.

    Polymarket large trades, September 26 to October 10, 2026; the large-trade floor was $10,000 ($1,000 on an earnings market). Flags: 1 new-wallet long shot, 3 split positions. Read-only query run 14:07 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    Since the scorer's fix, 4 of 6,874 large trades were flagged
    Large trades scored6,874
    $30,000 or more1,367
    $30,000+ at a long-shot price89
    Flagged on any track (independent count)4
    ResearchRead article: How suspicious Polymarket trades get flagged
  22. 4 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    Sharp money vs trade size on Polymarket: what 29,451 sports buys show

    Buys of $100,000 and up beat their price by 5.04 points in a corrected taker-only sample of 29,451 sports buys.

    F wallets put $81.96M into large sports buys; S wallets, $46.43M

    Dollars in large sports buys on the feed, by the grade each wallet showed when its order filled.

    8,077 sports buys on the large-trade feed, September 20 to October 10, 2026, $216.66M in all. Read-only query run 12:22 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    F wallets put $81.96M into large sports buys; S wallets, $46.43M
    S$46.4M
    A$25.8M
    B$18.6M
    C$5.0M
    D$6.5M
    F$82.0M
    No grade$28.9M
    Not on record$3.3M
    ResearchRead article: Sharp money vs trade size on Polymarket: what 29,451 sports buys show
  23. 5 min readUpdated Oct 18, 2026

    Is 0xinsider worth it? The price against the pick record

    Pro costs $99 a month or $891 a year. By October 11, 2026, 445 settled Pick of the Day picks had won 63.6% at an average price of 60.2¢, 3.37 points ahead of the price with a 95% margin of ±4.24: not yet distinguishable from luck. Pay for the live feed if timing matters to you, not for the picks.

    319 of the 454 published picks came out from September 1 on

    Pick of the Day picks published each month, by pick date, with the median day's count in the tooltip.

    Published Pick of the Day picks with no withdrawal, at the price frozen at publication, settled or not; October runs to the 10th. Read-only query run 13:51 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    319 of the 454 published picks came out from September 1 on
    Jun6
    Jul31
    Aug98
    Sep180
    Oct 1-11139
    AnalysisRead article: Is 0xinsider worth it? The price against the pick record
  24. 3 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    How to read sharp-money signals in prediction markets

    A large trade proves a side, a size and a price, and nothing about why. From August 1 to October 9, 2026, 8.6% of large Polymarket sports buys came with a large trade the other way in the same market, and the top quarter of review scores beat its price by 1.51 points, inside a ±1.81 margin. Check the floor, the score, the wallet and the book before you call anything sharp money.

    The feed's smallest sports trade went from $2,996 to $10,000 on July 2

    The smallest Polymarket sports trade the large-trade feed recorded each month, in dollars, with the month's trade count in the tooltip.

    Every large-trade feed row on a sports market, buys and sells, February 1 to October 10, 2026. Read-only query run 13:49 to 14:11 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    The feed's smallest sports trade went from $2,996 to $10,000 on July 2
    Feb$2,987
    Mar$2,987
    Apr$2,958
    May$2,978
    Jun$2,996
    Jul$2,996
    Aug$10.0K
    Sep$10.0K
    Oct 1-10$10.0K
    ResearchRead article: How to read sharp-money signals in prediction markets
  25. 6 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    How efficient are prediction markets? Calibration across 4.6 million Polymarket buys

    Across 4.6 million Polymarket buys of $100 or more by 82,518 wallets, every 10¢ price band came true within one point of the price paid. This corrects the June version, which measured wallets 0xinsider tracks and reported a 7.2 to 8.3 point gap from 45¢ to 75¢ and 70% of traders beating the price.

    June said 70% of traders beat the price; every wallet's buys say 54.5%

    The share of wallets whose buys came true more often than the price they paid, as published in June and as re-measured in October.

    June 12: 8,705 tracked traders, as published. October 10: 31,231 wallets with buys in 5+ settled markets, and 180,637 tracked wallets on their recorded positions. Read-only queries run 00:58 UTC on October 10, 2026.

    June said 70% of traders beat the price; every wallet's buys say 54.5%
    Published, June 1270.0%
    Every wallet's buys54.5%
    Tracked wallets now51.0%
    ResearchRead article: How efficient are prediction markets? Calibration across 4.6 million Polymarket buys
  26. 4 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    Sports now make up two-thirds of Polymarket's markets: the 2026 data

    On October 11, 2026, 2,698,466 of the 4,049,165 Polymarket markets in 0xinsider's table were sports, two in three, up from just under half in June. Soccer alone has more markets than crypto, and 250 wallets placed half of the large sports money.

    Sports markets closing each month rose from 53,390 in January to 713,729 in September

    Polymarket markets by the month of their scheduled end date, sports against every other category, January to September 2026.

    • Sports
    • Every other category

    Polymarket markets in 0xinsider's market table, open or settled, by Polymarket's own category; 4,049,165 markets in all. Read-only queries run 13:49 to 14:11 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    Sports markets closing each month rose from 53,390 in January to 713,729 in September
    CategorySportsEvery other category
    Jan53,39028,467
    Feb67,90442,298
    Mar98,950100,180
    Apr118,909132,364
    May136,706142,557
    Jun158,591148,050
    Jul249,208150,420
    Aug452,027166,571
    Sep713,729177,054
    AnalysisRead article: Sports now make up two-thirds of Polymarket's markets: the 2026 data
  27. 9 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    The 10 highest earners on Polymarket: $122.1 million, and why only 3 are S-grade

    The 10 highest-earning graded wallets on Polymarket hold $122.1 million in combined P&L, 11.5% of all profit across 100,898 graded wallets. Only 3 carry an S grade. The other 7, including all 5 election-cycle winners, are graded C; none has traded more than 45 markets.

    The median S-grade wallet has traded 2,321 markets; the median C-grade wallet 47

    Median markets traded per wallet, by current grade; the first color marks the grades the leaderboard lists.

    170,974 graded wallets. 0xinsider grades, read-only production query at 14:07 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    The median S-grade wallet has traded 2,321 markets; the median C-grade wallet 47
    S2,321
    A966
    B179
    C47
    D95
    F171
    LeaderboardRead article: The 10 highest earners on Polymarket: $122.1 million, and why only 3 are S-grade
  28. 2 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    Bots vs humans on Polymarket: why we withdrew the study

    Polymarket does not label accounts as bots or humans; the labels in our March 2026 study were our own, inferred from trading patterns. We withdrew its cohort counts and P&L comparisons because no dated query can reproduce them. This page keeps what the labels measured and what they could not show.

    One wallet in 5 fills under 10% on whole cents; one in 9 fills 90% or more

    Wallets by the share of their fills at a whole-cent price, in ten-point bands.

    102,392 wallets with a whole-cent share. Each wallet's latest computed share (the oldest from September 17, 2026), read-only production query at 14:06 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    One wallet in 5 fills under 10% on whole cents; one in 9 fills 90% or more
    0-10%21,977
    10-20%9,520
    20-30%12,775
    30-40%10,732
    40-50%7,667
    50-60%9,365
    60-70%7,518
    70-80%6,403
    80-90%5,007
    90-100%11,428
    AnalysisRead article: Bots vs humans on Polymarket: why we withdrew the study
  29. 11 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    A $36,000 P&L gap between trading-time cohorts

    In the March 2026 snapshot, traders active from 8-12 UTC averaged +$21,786 in P&L, and traders active from 16-20 UTC averaged -$14,099. That $36,000 gap is an association between cohorts, not proof that changing your trading hours changes your returns. Later rechecks retracted its specialization and longshot findings.

    More wallets in the snapshot lost money than made it: 5,600 to 4,981

    Wallets with 10 or more markets, by whether their P&L was positive.

    10,581 wallets, the snapshot's largest single analysis. 0xinsider's March 2026 snapshot of Polymarket wallets, as first published on March 10, 2026.

    More wallets in the snapshot lost money than made it: 5,600 to 4,981
    Profitable4,981
    Unprofitable5,600
    AnalysisRead article: A $36,000 P&L gap between trading-time cohorts
  30. 3 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    NBA Polymarket large-trade study: withdrawn and replaced

    The earlier NBA analysis claimed 16,382 large trades while one of its own charts summed to 16,377, and no dated source or query could settle which was right. We withdrew every claim and chart built on it. A reproducible replacement on favorite-longshot pricing is now published.

    On moneylines, spreads and totals, large NBA buys won close to what they paid

    Average price paid, in cents read as a probability, against how often the bought side won, for each main NBA market type.

    • Price paid
    • Won

    59,074 of the replacement study's 63,037 buys, on its three main market types. Polymarket buys 0xinsider recorded as large trades on NBA markets, April 2 to July 24, 2026, settled yes or no after the trade, at 2 to 98 cents. Replacement study run 12:52 UTC on October 10, 2026.

    On moneylines, spreads and totals, large NBA buys won close to what they paid
    CategoryPrice paidWon
    Moneyline62.6%62.2%
    Spreads52.0%52.5%
    Totals51.9%53.1%
    AnalysisRead article: NBA Polymarket large-trade study: withdrawn and replaced
  31. 5 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    Winning Polymarket traders: what evidence to ask for before comparing

    We withdrew this article's wallet comparison and cohort benchmarks in July 2026 because no committed, reproducible query backed them. What remains is the checklist they failed, now measured on dated cohorts: who owns each number, how big the sample is, and what each metric counts.

    D is the most common grade; 324 of 170,974 graded wallets hold an S

    Polymarket wallets by the grade they held at the read.

    170,974 graded wallets; 191,586 more have no grade. A grade needs 5 traded markets, A needs 50 settled and S 200. 0xinsider wallet table, read-only query run 14:09 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    D is the most common grade; 324 of 170,974 graded wallets hold an S
    S324
    A1,163
    B9,331
    C65,435
    D68,851
    F25,870
    AnalysisRead article: Winning Polymarket traders: what evidence to ask for before comparing
  32. 3 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    addyfizzle10: Positive P&L in 98.6% of 10,851 stored Up-or-Down markets, -$42,731 portfolio P&L (July 14, 2026)

    addyfizzle10 had positive P&L in 10,702 of 10,851 stored Up-or-Down markets, yet Polymarket put its portfolio P&L at -$42,731 on July 14, 2026. The average losing market lost $776.62, about 230 times what the average winner made.

    Adding up the market rows overstates the loss by $29,125

    Polymarket's portfolio P&L for the wallet against the sum of its stored per-market P&L rows, in dollars.

    addyfizzle10, 10,851 stored Up-or-Down market rows; portfolio P&L from Polymarket's leaderboard. Retrieved July 14, 2026 from the production database.

    Adding up the market rows overstates the loss by $29,125
    Polymarket portfolio-$42.7K
    Market rows, summed-$71.9K
    AnalysisRead article: addyfizzle10: Positive P&L in 98.6% of 10,851 stored Up-or-Down markets, -$42,731 portfolio P&L (July 14, 2026)
  33. 7 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    Large trade tracking on prediction markets: what a record can prove

    A large-trade record proves its market, side, price, size, wallet, and timestamp, and nothing about why the trader placed it. Our feed is a filtered projection, not a full ledger, and its review scores and suspicious-trade flags are heuristics, not findings. The July 2026 correction retracted an unverified opening trade and its chart.

    92% of large trades were stored within 8 seconds of their block

    Large trades by the seconds between the fill's block time and the moment the feed wrote its row.

    6,323 Polymarket large trades, September 27 to October 10, 2026, the days with a write clock on every row. Median 5.0 s, 99th percentile 12.1 s, slowest 1,210 s. Storage only, not when a reader saw the trade. 0xinsider large-trade feed (whale_alerts), read-only query run 14:03 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    92% of large trades were stored within 8 seconds of their block
    Under 4s1,397
    4-6s3,338
    6-8s1,105
    8-10s322
    10-30s148
    30s+13
    AnalysisRead article: Large trade tracking on prediction markets: what a record can prove

Trader case studies

One wallet per study: Polymarket's own P&L total, our stored market counts, and what those rows cannot show.

  1. 4 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    swisstony: Verified $23,390,424 Polymarket P&L across 180,079 resolved markets

    Polymarket's curve put swisstony at $23,390,424 before fees on August 15, 2026, and more than half of it came in June and July 2026. It traded $979.5 million and closed 60.13% of 180,079 markets positive: a small edge, repeated at huge size.

    June and July 2026 added $13.3 million of swisstony's $23.4 million

    How much Polymarket's P&L curve for the wallet rose or fell in each calendar month, before fees and rebates, in US dollars.

    Daily points from August 10, 2025 to 00:00 UTC on August 15, 2026, the last before this page's total, so the last bar is August 1 to 14. Polymarket user P&L, read 14:06 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    June and July 2026 added $13.3 million of swisstony's $23.4 million
    Aug 2025-$68.8K
    Sep 2025-$23.1K
    Oct 2025+$89.6K
    Nov 2025+$1.8M
    Dec 2025+$1.3M
    Jan 2026+$686K
    Feb 2026+$817K
    Mar 2026+$1.0M
    Apr 2026+$1.3M
    May 2026+$2.3M
    Jun 2026+$4.1M
    Jul 2026+$9.2M
    Aug 1-14+$870K
    Case StudyRead article: swisstony: Verified $23,390,424 Polymarket P&L across 180,079 resolved markets
  2. 4 min readUpdated Oct 14, 2026

    RN1: Verified $12,787,924 Polymarket P&L on a 51.70% win rate

    RN1 won only 51.70% of 107,543 resolved markets, yet its Polymarket P&L curve rose in all 14 of its months and read $12,787,924 on August 15, 2026. Each dollar lost came back as $1.16, and that thin edge, repeated, made the total.

    RN1's P&L curve rose in all 14 of its months

    How much Polymarket's P&L curve for the wallet rose or fell in each calendar month, before fees and rebates, in US dollars.

    Daily points from July 10, 2025 to 00:00 UTC on August 15, 2026, the last before this page's total, so the last bar is August 1 to 14. Polymarket user P&L, read 14:06 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    RN1's P&L curve rose in all 14 of its months
    Jul 2025+$3,079
    Aug 2025+$51.5K
    Sep 2025+$147K
    Oct 2025+$437K
    Nov 2025+$835K
    Dec 2025+$880K
    Jan 2026+$1.9M
    Feb 2026+$968K
    Mar 2026+$1.3M
    Apr 2026+$1.4M
    May 2026+$1.2M
    Jun 2026+$1.3M
    Jul 2026+$1.8M
    Aug 1-14+$502K
    Case StudyRead article: RN1: Verified $12,787,924 Polymarket P&L on a 51.70% win rate
  3. 4 min readUpdated Oct 14, 2026

    0x8dxd: $2,381,888 Polymarket P&L across 34,444 resolved markets

    0x8dxd made $2,381,888 before fees in four months of crypto Up or Down markets, at about 44,000 fills a day, and kept $2.34 of every $100 it traded. Then it all but stopped. Our stored win rate for it did not survive a re-read.

    0x8dxd made all of its $2.38 million between December 2025 and March 2026

    How much Polymarket's P&L curve for the wallet rose or fell in each calendar month, before fees and rebates, in US dollars.

    Daily points from December 5, 2025 to 00:00 UTC on August 15, 2026, the last before this page's total, so the last bar is August 1 to 14. Polymarket user P&L, read 14:06 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    0x8dxd made all of its $2.38 million between December 2025 and March 2026
    Dec 2025+$332K
    Jan 2026+$594K
    Feb 2026+$921K
    Mar 2026+$535K
    Apr 2026+$177
    May 2026-$1
    Jun 2026+$0
    Jul 2026+$0
    Aug 1-14-$1,105
    Case StudyRead article: 0x8dxd: $2,381,888 Polymarket P&L across 34,444 resolved markets
  4. 3 min readUpdated Oct 14, 2026

    vidarx: $659,586.50 Polymarket P&L on a 56.35% win rate

    vidarx made 88% of its $659,586.50 Polymarket P&L in February and March 2026, trading almost nothing but Bitcoin five-minute Up or Down markets at about $12 a fill. Its stored rows matched Polymarket's total to $27.39, the closest of six wallets.

    vidarx made 88% of its P&L in February and March 2026

    How much Polymarket's P&L curve for the wallet rose or fell in each calendar month, before fees and rebates, in US dollars.

    Daily points from November 25, 2025 to 00:00 UTC on August 15, 2026, the last before this page's total, so the last bar is August 1 to 14. Polymarket user P&L, read 14:06 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    vidarx made 88% of its P&L in February and March 2026
    Nov 2025+$45
    Dec 2025-$11.6K
    Jan 2026+$39.2K
    Feb 2026+$225K
    Mar 2026+$357K
    Apr 2026+$45.5K
    May 2026+$0
    Jun 2026+$0
    Jul 2026+$4,292
    Aug 1-14+$0
    Case StudyRead article: vidarx: $659,586.50 Polymarket P&L on a 56.35% win rate
  5. 3 min readUpdated Oct 12, 2026

    MuseumOfBees: $218,412.28 on a 1.04 profit factor across 17,680 markets

    MuseumOfBees had positive P&L in 52.00% of its 17,680 resolved markets and got back $1.04 for every dollar it lost. It traded $20.6 million in six weeks of 5-minute Bitcoin and Ether markets to reach $218,412.28 on Polymarket's P&L curve. Fees took 39% of its trading profit.

    February and March 2026 made all of it: $153K after fees

    Change in P&L after fees and rebates in each calendar month (UTC), from Polymarket's daily series.

    MuseumOfBees, first fills February 12, 2026, last fills March 26, 2026, series read to October 11, 2026. Polymarket's public P&L, user-stats, leaderboard and positions endpoints, read 13:43 to 14:04 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    February and March 2026 made all of it: $153K after fees
    Feb 2026+$123K
    Mar 2026+$30.2K
    Apr-Oct 2026-$118
    Case StudyRead article: MuseumOfBees: $218,412.28 on a 1.04 profit factor across 17,680 markets
  6. 3 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    ColdMath: A 78.43% win rate that banked $135,447.50

    ColdMath had positive P&L in 78.43% of its 8,229 resolved markets, the highest rate among the six wallets we checked on August 15, 2026, and banked $135,447.50. 81.0% of its dollars went in at 95 cents or more, where a win pays at most 5 cents a share. Since September it has traded almost nothing but soccer.

    84% of the P&L came from February to April 2026

    Change in P&L after fees and rebates in each calendar month (UTC), from Polymarket's daily series.

    ColdMath, November 2025 to October 11, 2026, 261,172 fills. Polymarket's public P&L, user-stats, leaderboard and positions endpoints, read 13:43 to 14:04 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    84% of the P&L came from February to April 2026
    Nov 2025-$351
    Dec 2025+$9,317
    Jan 2026+$9,289
    Feb 2026+$35.4K
    Mar 2026+$40.0K
    Apr 2026+$43.2K
    May 2026-$2,134
    Jun 2026-$2,305
    Jul 2026-$606
    Aug 2026+$67
    Sep 2026+$4,485
    Oct 1-11+$4,167
    Case StudyRead article: ColdMath: A 78.43% win rate that banked $135,447.50
  7. 3 min readUpdated Oct 11, 2026

    gabagool22: Verified $868,862.52 Polymarket P&L Snapshot (July 16, 2026)

    Polymarket's leaderboard put gabagool22's all-time portfolio P&L at $868,862.52 on July 16, 2026. Our 28,620 stored resolved-market rows summed to $118,908.15 less in July and have drifted further since, so this page uses Polymarket's totals. The February version's strategy claims and charts are retracted.

    Polymarket's totals sit within $56K; our row sum moved $1.31M

    Five totals for the same wallet, in dollars: three from Polymarket, two from our stored resolved rows.

    gabagool22, 28,620 markets, no fills since February 2026. Polymarket's public P&L, user-stats, leaderboard and positions endpoints, read 13:43 to 14:04 UTC on October 11, 2026. Our rows: read-only queries on July 16, 2026 and at 14:10 UTC on October 11, 2026.

    Polymarket's totals sit within $56K; our row sum moved $1.31M
    Polymarket P&L curve+$869K
    After fees and rebates+$864K
    Polymarket market rows+$813K
    Our rows, Jul 16+$750K
    Our rows, Oct 11-$558K
    Case StudyRead article: gabagool22: Verified $868,862.52 Polymarket P&L Snapshot (July 16, 2026)

Quick links

4 links
  • Skill Leaderboard

    S, A, and B-graded traders with their P&L and win rates. Grades recompute about every hour.

  • Datasets

    Per-trader JSON exports: labeled trades, resolved P&L, positions, and risk metrics.

  • Academic collaboration

    Row-level Polymarket data behind the grades, for academic researchers.

  • Methodology

    How grades are computed, where each number comes from, and what the data cannot show.

Live feed

Check the data yourself

Most studies use the same Polymarket data as the product. Export wallet trades from the datasets page, or check a claim on the leaderboard.

Browse datasetsView leaderboard

Picks and market activity

Read the published picks or follow large trades. The free feed runs 24 hours behind; Pro has no delay.

View picksView large trades
Developer docs