Polymarket tennis analytics

What the settled trades say

Across 47,916 large tennis buys from April 2 to September 11, 2026, buyers paid 65.9c on average and the side they bought won 65.3% of the time: 0.57 points worse than the price paid. 73.0% of them landed after the start rather than before it. Bought before the start, those buys came in 3.21 points worse than the price paid; bought in play, 0.39 points better than the price paid.

Taking each wallet's grade as of the day it traded, tennis buys from wallets graded S, A or B came in 0.72 points better than the price paid, and buys from D and F wallets 4.46 points worse. Every figure here is scored at settlement, so a wallet that sold early is judged on an exit it never took.

• Are Polymarket sports prices right?

  411,770 settled large buys scored against the price paid, with the SQL.

• Does the sharp money win in sports?

  Each wallet's grade as of the day it traded, scored against settlement.

• When large sports bets land

  Every buy timed against kickoff, from a week out to deep in play.

• Reading a sports board

  What the numbers on this page mean and how to use them.

• Favorite-longshot bias

  Why cheap contracts lose more than their price implies.

• Line movement

  What a price moving before kickoff is telling you.