Suspicious trades

A Polymarket trade lands here when it scores 60 of 100. The main track opens at a fill of $30,000 or more with 2 of the other 3 signals below also active. A second track opens at a brand-new wallet's long-shot trade from $2,000. Both are entry conditions that start the scoring, not the flag: a trade sitting on either floor scores well short of 60, so the signals have to be strong, not just present.

New wallet

10 trades or fewer. With 6 to 10, the wallet must be 2 weeks old or less, or trade in 2 markets or fewer.

Size

$30,000 or more on the one fill.

Long-shot price

A buy over 10¢ and at most 35¢, or a sell of at least 65¢ and under 90¢.

Cluster

3 or more wallets moving together on a quiet market.

The second track opens at $2,000 for a new wallet trading hard against the price. It drops the size and cluster tests and asks instead for a wallet that is nearly brand new and a price far from where the market sits, then scores those two against each other: a trade that only just clears both lands around 37 of 100, so the wallet has to be newer and the price further out than the floors to reach 60. Crypto up-or-down books score zero, because nobody can know those early. A wallet past ten trades stops scoring as new at all: that shape is a market maker, not someone who knows something.

A flag is a lead, not a verdict. The score reads the wallet's age and trade count, the fill's size, its price against the market, and how many wallets moved with it. It reads no news and proves nothing on its own. Crossing 60 says the fill is unusual for this market, which is a reason to look at the wallet and at what it has done before. It is not a claim that anyone traded on private information, and none of the four signals can establish that. The full method.