By sport: no cohort clears zero
Win rate minus price paid, percentage points, sports where every cohort shown has at least 500 buys. No cohort's interval excludes zero in any of them. In baseball every cohort lost to the price.
- S, A and B
- D and F
- No grade yet
The match winner draws over 95% of the volume on a tennis match
The match winner drew 95.5% of the volume on tennis matches; every other market split 4.5%
Share of the shares traded on Polymarket tennis matches, by market family. Completed match pays only if the match is played to the end.
Tennis markets on matches that started September 10 to October 10, 2026, with a 0xinsider page and 1,000 or more shares traded; 5,015 matches. Read-only production query run 13:30 UTC on October 11, 2026.
| Match winner | 95.5% |
|---|---|
| Completed match | 3.1% |
| Set handicap | 0.5% |
| First-set winner | 0.2% |
| Game handicap | 0.2% |
| Total games | 0.2% |
| Later set winner | 0.1% |
| Total sets | 0.1% |
Polymarket lists up to ten kinds of market on a tennis match, and the match winner takes almost all the trading. On matches that started September 10 to October 10, 2026, an average match winner market traded about 85,000 shares and an average first-set winner market about 4,000. The match market is titled with the tournament and both players, "US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton", and a share in the player who advances pays $1.
The side markets ask narrower questions. The first-set winner and later set winners pay on one set. The set handicap at -1.5 pays if a player wins in straight sets. Total Sets Over/Under 2.5 pays Over if a best-of-three match goes to a third set. Total Games is an over/under on the games in the match, such as 21.5, and set games totals do the same for one set. Completed Match pays Yes only if the match is played to the finish.
Most matches carry several of them. From October 3 to October 9, 2026, Polymarket listed the set handicap on 95.4% of 2,070 singles matches, the first-set winner on 73.1% and the game handicap on 17.4%. Listed is not traded. Work out a side market's price from the match winner, which carries the money, as the worked example below does, and use a limit order in a book that thin.
One match in 15 does not finish, and each market settles it its own way
Completed match settled No on 6.5% of matches; the match winner was voided on 2.8%
For Completed match, the share of settled markets that settled No: the match did not finish. For every other family, the share that settled 50-50.
Polymarket tennis markets on matches that started July 1 to October 9, 2026: 22,243 settled Completed match markets and 25,243 match-winner markets. Read-only query on a child branch of production, run 13:20 UTC on October 11, 2026.
| Completed match: No | 6.5% |
|---|---|
| Total sets: 50-50 | 6.1% |
| Later set winner: 50-50 | 5.9% |
| Total games: 50-50 | 5.9% |
| Set handicap: 50-50 | 5.4% |
| First-set winner: 50-50 | 3.6% |
| Match winner: 50-50 | 2.8% |
Completed Match settled No on 6.5% of the 22,243 matches it was listed on from July 1 to October 9, 2026: about one match in 15 ended in a retirement, a default or a walkover. Every other market has to decide what that means for its own question, and they decide differently.
The match market settles on the player who advances, so a retirement pays the opponent. A walkover, where a player withdraws before the first point, settles it 50-50. A set winner market settles only on a completed set and is refunded 50-50 otherwise. Total Sets and the games totals settle on any result already decided when play stopped: a match stopped at one set all would have needed a third set, so Over 2.5 wins. Otherwise they are refunded 50-50.
That is why the later-set, set handicap and totals markets in the chart above were refunded about twice as often as the match winner. If a player is carrying an injury, the match winner still pays someone when the match ends early. A set or totals bet on the same match can come back as a refund, so read each market's rules before you bet it.
How the prices fit together
Three ways a best-of-three match can end, and their prices
Prices for Panna Udvardy against Lois Boisson at the Guadalajara Open on September 13, 2026, read off the 0xinsider event page about an hour before the match. Not a measurement. A straight-sets win for either player or a third set covers every result, so the three prices add up to about $1: 100.5¢.
Take Panna Udvardy against Lois Boisson at the Guadalajara Open on September 13, 2026. About an hour before the match, the 0xinsider event page showed Boisson at 60.5¢ to win the match and 57¢ to win the first set. Boisson to win in straight sets, the -1.5 set handicap, was 38.5¢, Udvardy in straight sets was 25¢, and Over 2.5 sets was 37¢.
The last three prices cover every way a best-of-three match can end: one player two sets to love, the other two sets to love, or a third set. They add up to 100.5¢, about the $1 exactly one of them pays. The match price follows from them too: Boisson's 60.5¢ is 38.5¢ for winning in straight sets plus about 22¢ for winning in three.
The first-set price, 57¢, is closer to even than the match price. A player's edge grows over more sets, so the favorite is a bigger favorite over a match than over one set. When the first-set and match prices look the same, the market is calling the match close.
What the first set tells you
How often the player who won the first set won the match
26,900 settled Polymarket singles matches with a first-set market, November 9, 2025 to October 10, 2026. Tour is the series Polymarket files the match under. 497 of the 532 best-of-five matches are Grand Slam men's main-draw matches. The best-of-five bar carries a half-width of 3.70 points, the others 0.45 to 1.08. ITF matches are 49.4% of the sample, so the all-matches bar leans toward them.
Win the first set and you win the match 82.9% of the time. That is the rate across 26,900 settled Polymarket singles matches from November 9, 2025 to October 10, 2026, give or take 0.45 points, and the tour moves it, as the chart above shows: 85.3% on the ITF tour, 81.6% in the WTA and 80.4% in best-of-three ATP matches. ITF matches made up 75.5% of those from September 14 to October 10, 2026, so the overall rate rises as Polymarket lists more of them. Use the rate for the tour you are trading.
Best of five is more forgiving. A player who drops the first set needs both remaining sets in best of three, but three of the four left in best of five, and that room is worth about 6 points of comebacks: 74.6% across 532 best-of-five matches, almost all from the four Grand Slam men's main draws.
The 82.9% is an average over favorites and underdogs. A favorite who takes the first set is likelier than that to win, and an underdog who takes it is less likely. Treat the live price after the first set as the market's estimate for this match and the average as a check on it.
Total sets: how often a match goes to three
How often a best-of-three match went to a third set
Share of settled Total Sets Over/Under 2.5 markets that settled Over, on 25,737 best-of-three Polymarket singles matches. On the 17,486 matches that also had Set 1 and Set 2 markets, the total agreed with the set results every time.
A best-of-three match went to a third set 31.8% of the time across 25,737 settled Total Sets Over/Under 2.5 markets: 36.8% in the ATP, 34.9% in the WTA and 27.7% on the ITF tour. So Over 2.5 sets starts near 37¢ on an ATP match and 28¢ on an ITF match before the matchup moves it. Two evenly matched players push it up, and a clear favorite pushes it down, because a mismatch tends to end in straight sets.
In best of five, 55.0% of 509 settled Over 3.5 sets markets went to a fourth set, and 23.9% of 331 Over 4.5 markets went to a fifth. Those samples are small and come almost entirely from Grand Slam men's matches.
At one set all
After two sets: how often the first-set winner won the match
Settled Polymarket singles matches with Set 1 and Set 2 markets: 17,826 best of three, 245 best of five. In a best-of-three match two sets win it, so the first bar is a check on the data. The split-sets bar in best of three carries a half-width of 1.32 points; the best-of-five bars rest on 137 and 108 matches.
- Best of three
- Best of five
At one set all, the player who won the second set wins more often than the one who won the first. In 5,490 settled Polymarket matches that went to a third set, the first-set winner won 46.1% of the time, give or take 1.32 points, so the whole interval sits below 50%.
Best of five leans the same way on fewer matches: after a split of the first two sets, the first-set winner won 40.7% of 108. A player who won the first two sets went on to win 92.0% of 137. These are averages across players; the price at one set all still depends on who is playing.
Live tennis
Share of large buys placed in-play, by sport
Sports with at least 1,000 buys. Cricket, tennis, and MMA are live products on Polymarket. Soccer, hockey, and the WNBA trade before kickoff.
Tennis is traded live more than almost any other sport on Polymarket: 73.9% of large tennis buys from April 2 to September 11, 2026 came after the first serve. Neither side of the clock beat the price. Buys before the match came in 0.83 points behind it and buys during the match 0.57 ahead, on a split the study does not resample by sport. Read both as no edge.
An earlier version of this guide put the pre-match figure at minus 3.21 points. That run counted refunded markets as losses; the timing study has the correction.
Sellers live there too: 89.0% of large tennis sells came during play. Prices move point by point, so a limit order at your price beats chasing them, and a resting order that fills pays no taker fee. The cash-out guide covers selling during a match.
ITF matches fill the board, and the money is on the ATP and WTA
ITF matches were 55.2% of the tennis matches and drew 5.9% of the volume
Share of tennis match-winner markets, and of the shares traded on them, by the series Polymarket files the match under. ATP includes Challengers and qualifying.
- Matches
- Volume
5,019 match-winner markets on matches that started September 10 to October 10, 2026, with a 0xinsider page and 1,000 or more shares traded; Davis Cup's 21 matches are left out of the chart. Read-only production query run 13:30 UTC on October 11, 2026.
| Category | Matches | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| ATP | 30.3% | 58.7% |
| WTA | 14.1% | 35.2% |
| ITF | 55.2% | 5.9% |
An ATP match traded 18 times the shares of an ITF match on matches that started September 10 to October 10, 2026. ITF matches are most of what you see on Polymarket's tennis board and a sliver of what trades, so their prices move on small orders. On an ITF match, check the depth of the book before you trust the last price, and use a limit order.
The tennis board lists each match with both players' prices. A live match shows the games in each set, the sets won, the server and the current point. Open a match for its event page. With Pro, its Markets section lists every market by family, such as 1st Set Winner, Set Handicap, Total Sets and Total Games, with the 24-hour and 1-hour change under the first outcome, and a Volume by family bar shows where the shares traded. Without Pro the section shows sample data.
Top holders, also Pro, lists the wallets holding each player with the grade each has earned. Recorded large tennis taker fills that pass the feed filters appear in the large-trade feed marked BUY or SELL with the wallet's grade: live with Pro, 24 hours behind with an account, and a day old on the public feed without signing in.
Following the graded wallets will not carry a tennis bet on its own. In the sharp money study, graded as of each trade, wallets graded S, A or B came in at -0.16 points against the price on tennis buys from June to September 2026, and wallets graded D or F at -1.29, both within noise.
Frequently asked questions
How do you bet on tennis on Polymarket?
Buy shares in the player you think will win the match market, or in a set market such as the first-set winner, the set handicap or total sets. A share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Prices are probabilities: a player at 60 cents is a 60% chance.
What happens to a Polymarket tennis bet if a player retires?
The match market settles on the player who advances, including by retirement. A set winner market settles 50-50 if that set was not completed, and total sets and games markets settle on any result already decided when play stopped. A walkover before the match settles the match market 50-50.
How often does the first set winner win the match?
In 26,900 settled Polymarket singles matches to October 10, 2026, the first-set winner won 82.9% of the time: 85.3% on the ITF tour, 81.6% in the WTA, 80.4% in best-of-three ATP matches and 74.6% in best-of-five matches.
What does a -1.5 set handicap mean in tennis?
In a best-of-three match, a player at -1.5 sets has to win in straight sets, two sets to love. The other player, at +1.5 sets, wins the bet by taking at least one set.
How often does a tennis match go to a third set?
31.8% of 25,737 settled Polymarket Total Sets Over/Under 2.5 markets on best-of-three singles matches settled Over, meaning the match needed a third set: 36.8% in the ATP and 27.7% on the ITF tour.
How often does a tennis match end in a retirement on Polymarket?
About one match in 15. Polymarket's Completed Match market settled No, meaning the match was not played to the finish, on 6.5% of 22,243 matches from July to October 2026.
