RN1: Verified $12,787,924 Polymarket P&L on a 51.70% win rate

Polymarket's own user P&L curve returns $12,787,924 for the wallet 0x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875ea, the account trading as RN1. That provider response owns the account total. Our production mirror held $12,787,923.53 at its last sync, a difference of $0.47.

On the stored side, RN1 has 107,543 resolved markets and 431 still open, on $1.06 billion of lifetime volume.

This is a fixed snapshot retrieved on August 15, 2026. The live profile keeps updating, so its values will move after this date.

The 107,543 stored resolved rows sum to $9,048,205.72, $3,739,718.28 below the provider total of $12,787,924. The row sum is a diagnostic, not a second account total.

The gap runs the opposite way from some other large wallets, whose stored rows sum above the provider total. Merges, redeems, and maker rebates do not always belong to one market row, so the row sum can land on either side. Every account total here comes from the provider response.

Our stored rows were last synced on August 15, 2026 at 17:12:12 UTC. On that clock, 55,595 of the 107,543 resolved markets closed with positive P&L, 51,778 negative, and 170 at zero. Positive rows over all 107,543 gives the 51.70% win rate.

On the same rows, gross positive realized P&L of $65,368,026.21 divided by gross negative realized P&L of $56,319,820.49 gives a profit factor of 1.16.

A 51.70% win rate is close to a coin flip. A 1.16 profit factor means each dollar lost was matched by $1.16 won. On any single market that edge is nearly invisible, and 51,778 of the resolved markets closed negative.

The total comes from the count, not the accuracy. 107,543 resolved markets and $1.06 billion of volume turn a thin per-market edge into $12,787,924. A wallet with this win rate and a tenth of the activity would not have a comparable result.

This is an easy way to misread a large Polymarket record. A 51.70% win rate looks unremarkable next to wallets that win 70% or 80% of their markets on a few thousand rows, yet the ranking favors this account, because the leaderboard ranks banked profit. Read a win rate with its row count beside it.

None of this identifies a strategy. Row outcomes do not show order-book behavior, execution intent, holding periods, or uptime.

The provider source is Polymarket's user P&L API for the wallet address, all intervals, retrieved August 15, 2026. The account total quoted here is the last cumulative point on that curve, the same value our ingestion reconciles the stored total against.

A separate read-only production query produced the resolved-row counts and gross sums, as of the stored rows' last sync on August 15, 2026 at 17:12:12 UTC. The exact queries and their raw output are in our repository's verification note for this article.

This page makes no claim about holding periods, per-trade expectancy, timing, category mix, comparison benchmarks, or why the wallet made money.

The live wallet is at 0xinsider.com/profile/0x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875ea, including open positions this snapshot does not cover. The address identifies the wallet; the RN1 username can change.

Use the profile for current numbers and this article for the August 15, 2026 record. If the two differ, the provider's numbers moved after publication.