vidarx: $659,586.50 Polymarket P&L on a 56.35% win rate

Polymarket's own user P&L curve returns $659,586.50 for the wallet 0x2d8b401d2f0e6937afebf18e19e11ca568a5260a, the account trading as vidarx. That provider response owns the account total. Our production mirror held $659,586.48, a difference of $0.02.

On the stored side, vidarx has 17,447 resolved markets on $91.0 million of lifetime volume, with none still open.

One caveat: our stored rows for this wallet were last synced on August 6, 2026 at 19:03:27 UTC, before the provider read on August 15, 2026. The row-level counts below are as of the earlier date. The provider total and our mirror agree to $0.02, so nothing material moved in between, but we report the two dates separately.

The 17,447 stored resolved rows sum to $659,613.89, $27.39 above the provider total of $659,586.50: about 0.004%.

That gap is unusually small. For the other wallets we have published, the row sum lands hundreds of thousands of dollars away from the provider figure, and in one case more than $20 million, in either direction. Merges, redeems, and maker rebates do not always belong to one market row, so the two numbers do not have to meet.

Here they nearly do, which suggests the portfolio effects are small next to the market-level outcomes. The row sum is still not an account total, and this article still quotes the provider figure.

Of the 17,447 resolved markets, 9,832 closed with positive P&L, 7,613 negative, and 2 at zero. Positive rows over all 17,447 gives the 56.35% win rate.

Gross positive realized P&L of $2,435,096.09 against gross negative of $1,775,482.20 gives a profit factor of 1.37: $1.37 of gains for every dollar lost, across 17,447 settled markets.

None of this identifies a strategy. Row outcomes do not show order-book behavior, execution intent, holding periods, or uptime.

The provider source is Polymarket's user P&L API for the wallet address, all intervals, retrieved August 15, 2026. The account total is the last cumulative point on that curve.

A separate read-only production query produced the resolved-row counts and gross sums, as of the stored rows' last sync on August 6, 2026 at 19:03:27 UTC. The exact queries and their raw output are in our repository's verification note for this cohort.

This page makes no claim about holding periods, per-trade expectancy, timing, category mix, or why the wallet made money.

The live wallet is at 0xinsider.com/profile/0x2d8b401d2f0e6937afebf18e19e11ca568a5260a. The address identifies the wallet; the vidarx username can change.

Use the profile for current numbers and this article for the August 15, 2026 record. If the two differ, the provider's numbers moved after publication.