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Case Study6 sections

gabagool22: Verified $868,862.52 Polymarket P&L Snapshot (July 16, 2026)

Bottom line

Polymarket's leaderboard put gabagool22's all-time portfolio P&L at $868,862.52 on July 16, 2026. Our 28,620 stored resolved-market rows summed to $118,908.15 less in July and have drifted further since, so this page uses Polymarket's totals. The February version's strategy claims and charts are retracted.

A verified July 16, 2026 snapshot

Polymarket's official all-time, all-market leaderboard returned gabagool22 at the wallet 0x6031b6eed1c97e853c6e0f03ad3ce3529351f96d with portfolio P&L of $868,862.52. That provider response owns the account total. We checked the production database only to reconcile that figure and for the narrower resolved-market counts below.

Correction (July 16, 2026): the February version mixed an unrecoverable historical total with conflicting market counts, unsourced strategy claims, and hand-built chart series presented as observed performance. We withdrew those claims instead of rescaling or relabeling them, and kept the URL so earlier citations reach the correction.

Every figure here is fixed at July 16, 2026. The live profile keeps updating, so its values can differ from this snapshot.

Verified evidence snapshot

gabagool22 on July 16, 2026

0x6031b6eed1c97e853c6e0f03ad3ce3529351f96d

Polymarket portfolio P&L
$868,862.52
Stored resolved rows
28,620
Positive-row rate
79.45%
Stored-row profit factor
2.13

The portfolio total comes from Polymarket's all-time leaderboard. Stored market rows are a separate diagnostic basis and are not summed into a second account total. Those rows were last synced on July 16, 2026 at 04:29:56 UTC.

Polymarket's totals agree; our stored rows do not

Polymarket gives this wallet three totals, and they sit within $55,869.49 of each other: $868,862.50 on its older P&L curve, $863,504.13 after fees and rebates, and $812,993.01 of realized P&L on its leaderboard. Its position records add up to that leaderboard figure within $0.03.

Our 28,620 stored rows summed to $749,954.37 in July. On October 11 the same rows summed to -$557,848.15. The wallet has not traded since February, so the swing is in our data. It is why this page takes every account total from Polymarket and keeps our row sum as a diagnostic.

Polymarket's totals sit within $56K; our row sum moved $1.31M

Five totals for the same wallet, in dollars: three from Polymarket, two from our stored resolved rows.

gabagool22, 28,620 markets, no fills since February 2026. Polymarket's public P&L, user-stats, leaderboard and positions endpoints, read 13:43 to 14:04 UTC on October 11, 2026. Our rows: read-only queries on July 16, 2026 and at 14:10 UTC on October 11, 2026.

Polymarket's totals sit within $56K; our row sum moved $1.31M
Polymarket P&L curve+$869K
After fees and rebates+$864K
Polymarket market rows+$813K
Our rows, Jul 16+$750K
Our rows, Oct 11-$558K

The win rate depends on whose rows you count

In July, 22,740 of our 28,620 resolved rows were positive, 79.45%. On October 11 the same markets read 18,525 positive, 64.73%, and that is the win rate the profile shows. Polymarket's own position records count 23,277, 81.33%.

Until our rows match Polymarket's again, read the profile's win rate for this wallet as our number and 81.33% as Polymarket's. The 2.13 profit factor came from the July rows, synced July 16, 2026 at 04:29:56 UTC: it describes that data.

Our rows now put the win rate at 64.7%; Polymarket's put it at 81.3%

Share of resolved markets that closed with positive P&L, by source and read date.

gabagool22, 28,620 markets. Our rows: read-only queries on July 16, 2026 and at 14:10 UTC on October 11, 2026. Polymarket: positions summed by market, 13:43 to 14:04 UTC on October 11, 2026.

Our rows now put the win rate at 64.7%; Polymarket's put it at 81.3%
Our rows, Jul 1679.45%
Our rows, Oct 1164.73%
Polymarket81.33%

What we retracted

We removed the original historical profit total, the asset and time-bucket splits, the holding-duration splits, the best and worst sessions, elapsed-window rates, per-trade expectancy, third-party benchmarks, and a simulated cumulative-profit curve. None of them had a recoverable provider response or a reproducible query tied to the publication date.

We also retracted the claim that these rows prove a market-making strategy. A high positive-row rate or profit factor describes stored outcomes. It cannot show order-book behavior, execution intent, uptime, or where the profit came from.

Polymarket's own series shows profit in every month it traded

On October 11 we re-read the account from Polymarket's public endpoints: its daily P&L series, user stats, leaderboard and every position. The series has gabagool22 trading from late October 2025 to late February 2026, 12.9 million fills and $71.4 million in cash, and not one fill since. Dec 2025 alone added $307,058.02.

Unlike the withdrawn February curve, every bar in the chart below is Polymarket's own number. All but 3 of its 28,620 markets were crypto Up or Down markets, 21,331 of them 15-minute ones, and it held both sides in 28,586. That is what the record shows, not why.

The July figures come from a saved leaderboard response (category OVERALL, time period ALL, order PNL, and the wallet address, as Polymarket's official OpenAPI spec documents them) and a read-only, repeatable-read query of our stored rows less than 5 minutes later. That query required one wallet-address match, the current username, full resolved or expired status coverage, finite realized P&L, and matching counts before it returned anything.

Every month it traded was a winning month, Oct 2025 to Feb 2026

Change in P&L after fees and rebates in each calendar month (UTC), from Polymarket's daily series.

gabagool22, first fills October 29, 2025, last fills February 20, 2026; from March 1 to October 11, 2026 its P&L moved -$0.04. Polymarket's public P&L, user-stats, leaderboard and positions endpoints, read 13:43 to 14:04 UTC on October 11, 2026.

Every month it traded was a winning month, Oct 2025 to Feb 2026
Oct 2025+$8,663
Nov 2025+$136K
Dec 2025+$307K
Jan 2026+$265K
Feb 2026+$146K

The profile shows P&L after fees, and rebates covered most of them

gabagool22's profile shows P&L after fees and rebates: $863,504.13 at 15:45 UTC on October 10, 2026. Polymarket charged the wallet $54,694.51 in fees and paid back $50,511.17 in maker rebates, 92% of them, so the profile sits close to the July figure.

Use the profile for current numbers and this page for the July 16, 2026 record, and do not mix figures from the two dates. The one profile number to read with care is the win rate: for this wallet it comes from our rows, which no longer match Polymarket's.

Maker rebates paid back 92% of gabagool22's fees

Lifetime trading P&L, fees paid and maker rebates, in dollars, adding up to the P&L the profile shows.

gabagool22, 12,921,918 fills. Polymarket /v2/user-stats at 15:45 UTC on October 10, 2026, read 13:43 to 14:04 UTC on October 11, 2026.

Maker rebates paid back 92% of gabagool22's fees
Trading P&L+$868K
Fees paid-$54.7K
Maker rebates+$50.5K
After fees and rebates+$864K
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