Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Is Right for You?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the two dominant prediction market platforms, but they serve different audiences and operate under fundamentally different models. Polymarket is a crypto-native platform built on Polygon that uses USDC for trading and does not require identity verification. It has become the largest prediction market by volume, processing billions of dollars in trades across a wide range of event categories. Its permissionless nature and deep liquidity have made it the platform of choice for sophisticated traders and crypto-native users.

Kalshi, by contrast, is a CFTC-regulated exchange that operates as a Designated Contract Market in the United States. It requires full KYC verification, accepts USD deposits via bank transfer and debit card, and offers event contracts across economics, politics, weather, and other categories. Kalshi's regulatory status gives it legal certainty in the US market but also imposes restrictions on what types of markets it can offer. The two platforms represent different philosophies: Polymarket prioritizes openness and volume, while Kalshi prioritizes regulatory compliance and institutional trust.

Kalshi's biggest differentiator is its regulatory standing. As a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market, Kalshi operates under the same regulatory framework as traditional futures exchanges. This means customer funds are protected, markets are surveilled for manipulation, and the platform is subject to regular audits. For US-based traders, Kalshi is the straightforward legal option — there is no ambiguity about its compliance status. However, this regulation also limits Kalshi's market offerings, as the CFTC must approve new event contract categories and has blocked certain politically sensitive markets.

Polymarket operates in a different legal space. As a crypto-native platform, it does not hold a US regulatory license and has faced CFTC enforcement action in the past, resulting in a $1.4 million settlement in 2022. Polymarket has since geo-blocked US users from its front end, though enforcement of this restriction is imperfect. For non-US users, Polymarket's lack of regulatory overhead means faster market creation, more diverse event categories, and fewer barriers to entry. The tradeoff is less legal protection — there is no FDIC insurance, no regulatory recourse, and users must trust the platform's smart contracts and oracle system.

Polymarket offers the broadest range of markets of any prediction platform. New markets are created frequently, often within hours of a newsworthy event, covering politics, cryptocurrency prices, sports, entertainment, science, and viral cultural moments. This responsiveness to current events drives high engagement and trading volume. The platform's crypto-native user base also means there is deep liquidity in crypto-related markets that do not exist elsewhere. However, the speed of market creation sometimes leads to ambiguous resolution criteria, which can create disputes.

Kalshi's market selection is more curated and typically focuses on economically significant events. Its strongest categories include economic indicators (inflation, GDP, jobs reports), weather events, Federal Reserve decisions, and company earnings. Kalshi has been expanding into political markets after winning legal battles to list election contracts. Each market goes through a regulatory review process, which means fewer total markets but generally clearer resolution criteria and less ambiguity. For traders focused on macroeconomic events and data-driven markets, Kalshi often provides a more structured experience.

Polymarket does not charge explicit trading fees — the cost of trading is embedded in the bid-ask spread and the gas fees for on-chain transactions. Because Polymarket runs on Polygon, gas costs are minimal (typically less than a cent per transaction). The absence of explicit fees makes Polymarket attractive for high-frequency traders and market makers who execute many trades. However, the effective cost depends heavily on the spread in each market — liquid markets like major elections may have spreads of $0.01, while niche markets can have spreads of $0.05 or more.

Kalshi charges variable fees on each contract traded, typically ranging from $0.01 to $0.07 per contract depending on the market and the trader's volume tier. These fees are transparent and deducted at the time of trade. Kalshi does not charge deposit or withdrawal fees for bank transfers, though debit card deposits may incur a processing fee. For occasional traders making a few trades per week, Kalshi's fees are modest. For active traders executing hundreds of trades per day, the per-contract fees can add up significantly and should be factored into strategy design.

Polymarket has invested heavily in its user interface, offering a clean, responsive web app and native mobile apps for iOS and Android. The trading experience is smooth, with real-time order book updates, one-click trading, and detailed market pages that include charts, comments, and related markets. Onboarding, however, can be a barrier for users unfamiliar with crypto — setting up a wallet, bridging USDC to Polygon, and understanding gas fees are hurdles that do not exist on traditional platforms. Polymarket has mitigated this with its integrated wallet and fiat on-ramp, but the crypto layer is still visible.

Kalshi provides a more traditional trading experience that will feel familiar to anyone who has used a stock brokerage. Sign-up involves standard identity verification, and depositing funds is as simple as linking a bank account. The web and mobile interfaces are well-designed, with clear market categories, portfolio tracking, and order management. Kalshi also offers an API for algorithmic traders, though it is less widely used than Polymarket's API ecosystem. For users who want a prediction market experience without any crypto complexity, Kalshi is the more accessible platform.

The right platform depends on your priorities and circumstances. If you are based outside the United States, Polymarket is likely the better choice — it offers more markets, higher liquidity, no KYC friction, and no trading fees. If you are comfortable with crypto wallets and USDC, Polymarket provides the deepest and most active prediction market ecosystem in the world. It is also the platform where the most sophisticated traders operate, which means tighter markets and more opportunities for those with genuine edge.

If you are based in the United States and want legal certainty, Kalshi is the clear choice. Its CFTC regulation means your funds are protected, your trades are legal, and you have regulatory recourse if something goes wrong. Kalshi's focus on economic and data-driven markets also makes it appealing for traders who specialize in macro analysis and quantitative approaches. Many serious prediction market traders use both platforms, maintaining a Kalshi account for US-regulated markets and a Polymarket account for the broader market selection and deeper liquidity available there.