ColdMath: A 78.43% win rate that banked $135,447.50

Polymarket's own user P&L curve returns $135,447.50 for the wallet 0x594edb9112f526fa6a80b8f858a6379c8a2c1c11, the account trading as ColdMath. That provider response owns the account total. Our production mirror held $135,447.48, a difference of $0.02.

On the stored side, ColdMath has 8,229 resolved markets and 1 still open, on $11.8 million of lifetime volume.

This is a fixed snapshot retrieved on August 15, 2026. The live profile keeps updating, so its values will move after this date.

78.43% of ColdMath's resolved markets closed positive, and gross wins outran gross losses by a factor of 4.11. Both numbers are far stronger than those of the high-volume wallets above this account on the leaderboard.

The banked total is $135,447.50. RN1, at a 51.70% win rate, has banked $12,787,924, and 0x8dxd, at 54.84%, $2,381,888, because they staked far more across far more markets. The leaderboard ranks realized P&L, which is accuracy multiplied by size and repetition, so being right more often does not rank you higher.

The lesson runs both ways. A high win rate on a modest book is real skill and a small number at the same time. A low win rate on a far larger book can be a much bigger number, and harder to hold.

561 of the 8,229 resolved rows closed at exactly zero realized P&L, about 7% of the book. Those rows are neither wins nor losses, and they still sit inside the denominator of the 78.43% rate quoted here.

The other five wallets in this cohort have far fewer: at most 170 zero rows each, under 0.2% of their books. A share this size is a real feature of this account's record, not a rounding artifact, and a win rate alone hides it.

Our stored rows were last synced on August 15, 2026 at 14:41:48 UTC. On that clock, 6,454 of the 8,229 resolved markets closed with positive P&L, 1,214 negative, and 561 at zero. Positive rows over all 8,229 gives the 78.43% rate.

Gross positive realized P&L of $428,002.49 against gross negative of $104,247.72 gives the 4.11 profit factor. The 8,229 rows sum to $323,754.77, $188,307.27 above the provider total, so the row sum stays a diagnostic and the provider figure stays the account total.

None of this identifies a strategy. Row outcomes do not show order-book behavior, execution intent, holding periods, or uptime.

The provider source is Polymarket's user P&L API for the wallet address, all intervals, retrieved August 15, 2026. The account total is the last cumulative point on that curve.

A separate read-only production query produced the resolved-row counts and gross sums, as of the stored rows' last sync on August 15, 2026 at 14:41:48 UTC. The exact queries and their raw output are in our repository's verification note for this cohort.

This page makes no claim about holding periods, per-trade expectancy, timing, category mix, or why the wallet made money.

The live wallet is at 0xinsider.com/profile/0x594edb9112f526fa6a80b8f858a6379c8a2c1c11, including the open market this snapshot does not cover. The address identifies the wallet; the ColdMath username can change.

Use the profile for current numbers and this article for the August 15, 2026 record. If the two differ, the provider's numbers moved after publication.