Polymarket wallets ranked by how far their settled basketball buys beat the price they paid, on a conservative lower bound, beside the recent large trades on NBA, WNBA, and college games. Polymarket lists game winners, player props, playoff series, and championship futures through the season.
Ranked by the 95% lower bound of each wallet's edge on its first large buys, observed as they filled and equal-weighted by independent event. Coverage is Polymarket only and partial: large taker buys since model launch, not reconstructed history, and not raw win rate.
A live rank needs 30 resolved independent events. Each row uses model category-skill-v2.1.0, and observations begin , from partial Goldsky primary taker fills. Edge metrics refreshed 6m ago.
Large trades in basketball, ranked by how unusual they are rather than by time, each with the wallet behind it. Without Pro a trade reaches this flow once it is 24 hours old, and the suspicion score behind the ranking stays with Pro.
Wallets first seen in the last 30 days, placing large directional trades. They have little settled history yet, so this is flow, not edge.
The wallets ranked at the top of this page. The order is the 95% lower bound of each wallet's edge against the price paid, measured on its first large buy in every settled basketball market as it filled. A short lucky run has a wide interval and a low bound, so it rarely reaches the top.
Polymarket lists contracts on game winners, point spreads, player performance, playoff outcomes, and championship winners across the NBA, WNBA, and college basketball. The price is the implied probability: a team trading at $0.65 has a 65% chance of winning, as the market sees it. Markets resolve on the official result.
How Polymarket lists these games and how each market settles.
Every other category we track.
Injury reports, rest schedules, home and away splits, pace, and matchup history. A trader combines several of them into a probability and compares it with the price before buying.
The NBA playoffs and Finals and the March Madness tournament, with steady volume on regular-season game days. Pre-game markets carry the most liquidity; in-game markets, where listed, move fast on injuries and key plays.
Only with an edge the price does not have: a better model, faster information, or knowledge of a thin market. The ranking on this page shows which wallets' settled basketball buys beat the price they paid.
