Polymarket wallets ranked by how far their settled political buys beat the price they paid, on a conservative lower bound, beside the recent large trades on elections and policy. Political markets run from presidential elections to Fed rate decisions.
Ranked by the 95% lower bound of each wallet's edge on its first large buys, observed as they filled and equal-weighted by independent event. Coverage is Polymarket only and partial: large taker buys since model launch, not reconstructed history, and not raw win rate.
A live rank needs 30 resolved independent events. Each row uses model category-skill-v2.1.0, and observations begin , from partial Goldsky primary taker fills. Edge metrics refreshed 10m ago.
Large trades in politics, ranked by how unusual they are rather than by time, each with the wallet behind it. Without Pro a trade reaches this flow once it is 24 hours old, and the suspicion score behind the ranking stays with Pro.
Wallets first seen in the last 30 days, placing large directional trades. They have little settled history yet, so this is flow, not edge.
The wallets ranked at the top of this page. The order is the 95% lower bound of each wallet's edge against the price paid, measured on its first large buy in every settled political market as it filled. A short lucky run has a wide interval and a low bound, so it rarely reaches the top.
0xinsider has no accuracy figure for political markets alone; its calibration study pools every Polymarket category. Traders with money at stake set the price on Polymarket, and it updates as they trade.
Presidential elections, Congressional races, Supreme Court decisions, and Federal Reserve rate decisions, with the most trading around elections.
Every other category we track.
Find a political event where you think the price is wrong. Buy Yes if the outcome is more likely than the price says, No if it is less likely. Size the position carefully: the outcome is binary and the swings are large.
Availability depends on the venue and jurisdiction. Polymarket's international on-chain venue restricts order placement from the United States; Polymarket US is a separate US venue for sports, politics, and other event contracts. Check each venue's current eligibility rules before trading.
