Polymarket wallets ranked by how far their settled football buys beat the price they paid, on a conservative lower bound, beside the recent large trades on NFL and college football. Polymarket lists contracts through the regular season and the playoffs.
Ranked by the 95% lower bound of each wallet's edge on its first large buys, observed as they filled and equal-weighted by independent event. Coverage is Polymarket only and partial: large taker buys since model launch, not reconstructed history, and not raw win rate.
A live rank needs 30 resolved independent events. Each row uses model category-skill-v2.1.0, and observations begin , from partial Goldsky primary taker fills. Edge metrics refreshed 8m ago.
Large trades in football, ranked by how unusual they are rather than by time, each with the wallet behind it. Without Pro a trade reaches this flow once it is 24 hours old, and the suspicion score behind the ranking stays with Pro.
Wallets first seen in the last 30 days, placing large directional trades. They have little settled history yet, so this is flow, not edge.
The wallets ranked at the top of this page. The order is the 95% lower bound of each wallet's edge against the price paid, measured on its first large buy in every settled football market as it filled. A short lucky run has a wide interval and a low bound, so it rarely reaches the top.
There is no house setting a line: you trade against other traders, and the price is their consensus. The price moves as they react to news such as an injury report.
NFL and college football game winners, division and conference winners, Super Bowl and bowl-game champions, MVP and Heisman markets, and player and team props through the season.
Every other category we track.
Early in the week, before the line sharpens. The Wednesday and Friday injury reports move prices. Game day brings the most volume and the tightest pricing.
They move the price, most of all in thin prop markets. The trade flow on this page and the live feed both show recent large football trades a day behind without Pro, so a trade appears once it is 24 hours old; Pro reads both as they fill.
