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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    24%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$867.88
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$902.82
    • A
      HourglassLast traded
      Yes-$596.69

  • Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    15%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    53%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    22%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No-$2,780.57
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes+$2,230.35
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$279.14

  • Will Chile win on 2026-09-29?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    71%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$478.95
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      No+$401.11
    • S
      GC-PLast traded
      No+$274.24

  • Columbus: Braden Shick vs Mees Rottgering

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Mees Rottgering
    Won
    Mees Rottgering
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    30%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Braden Shick-$1,884.61
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Braden Shick-$495.46
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Mees Rottgering+$427.71

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Curitiba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Tomas Barrios

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Juan Bautista Torres
    Won
    Tomas Barrios
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    4%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    92%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Dana White's Contender Series: Luca Borando vs. Ian Escuza (Featherweight, Main Card)

    Right

    MMA

    Called
    Ian Escuza
    Won
    Ian Escuza
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    53%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      Luca Borando-$1,727.71
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Ian Escuza+$849.72
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Ian Escuza-$31.90

  • Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Seychelles win on 2026-09-30?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    61%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    91%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$57.73
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$35.37
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$34.29

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$241.53
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$36.30
    • S
      asdaefefLast traded
      Down-$28.03

  • Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    55%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No+$8.18
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No+$204.07
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No+$38.55

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    19%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$255.86
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$116.62
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$41.94

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Up-$92.77
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$47.73
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$14.33

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    6%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Harold Mayot vs Niels Visker

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Niels Visker
    Won
    Harold Mayot
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    4%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    15%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$74.77
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$25.51
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$25.36

  • Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Liam Broady vs Dominic Stephan Stricker

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Dominic Stephan Stricker
    Won
    Dominic Stephan Stricker
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    22%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Arsenal WFC win on 2026-09-30?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    38%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 30?

    No consensus

    Crypto

    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers Challengers (+1.5)

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Solary
    Won
    Solary
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    53%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Impressive-SteakLast traded
      Yes+$23,837.30
    • S
      Last traded
      No-$17,369.94
    • S
      TokorLast traded
      Yes+$1,749.07

  • Bari: Juan Martin vs Jay Clarke

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Juan Martin
    Won
    Juan Martin
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    38%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    39%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    40%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$1,611.98
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over+$1,346.63
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      Under+$1,082.43

  • Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    16%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs NightBirds - Game 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Team Heretics Academy
    Won
    Team Heretics Academy
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    55%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    52%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    56%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    32%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$128.79
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$80.23
    • S
      drfc4eybh7i8Last traded
      Up-$30.68

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$372.27
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$92.21
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$67.73

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    32%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will South Africa win on 2026-09-30?

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    26%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      GC-PLast traded
      No-$410.70
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No-$386.43
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      No+$131.42

  • Columbus: Luca Staeheli vs Andres Andrade

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Andres Andrade
    Won
    Andres Andrade
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Luca Staeheli-$1,812.34
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Andres Andrade+$373.04
    • S
      TRCMLast traded
      Andres Andrade+$287.53

  • Jingshan: Adam Walton vs Moise Kouame

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Adam Walton
    Won
    Adam Walton
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    92%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Adam Walton+$6,592.39
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Adam Walton+$2,204.79
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Adam Walton+$1,868.65

  • Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-30?

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    7%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      No-$655.52
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No-$515.14
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No-$368.67

  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?

    Right

    Economy

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Tabur vs Thomas Faurel

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Clement Tabur
    Won
    Clement Tabur
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    80%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$88.72
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$42.39
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down+$19.30

  • Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    81%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs Level UP (+1.5)

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Xtreme Gaming
    Won
    Xtreme Gaming
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    21%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      Level UP-$649.75
    • S
      antecLast traded
      Xtreme Gaming-$141.82
    • S
      qwe258Last traded
      Xtreme Gaming+$3.79

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    9%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Curitiba: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Pedro Sakamoto

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Pedro Sakamoto
    Won
    Pedro Sakamoto
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    21%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$34.03
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$22.34
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$16.99

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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