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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    44%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    20
    Confidence
    44%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down-$54.93
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$17.99
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$13.83

  • Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5)

    Right

    WNBA

    Called
    New York Liberty
    Won
    New York Liberty
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    55%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      New York Liberty+$1,249.74
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Minnesota Lynx-$987.95
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      New York Liberty+$327.01

  • Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    40%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$829.10
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No-$835.06
    • A
      HourglassLast traded
      No-$517.67

  • Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    16%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    10%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    55%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Juventus FC win on 2026-09-30?

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    16%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No-$1,504.39
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      No-$1,292.06
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No-$735.33

  • Seychelles vs. Sri Lanka: O/U 2.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    95%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    87%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Columbus: Nikita Samuel Filin vs Aidan Mayo

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Aidan Mayo
    Won
    Aidan Mayo
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    40%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    49%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over+$391.66
    • S
      ColdMathLast traded
      Under+$132.99
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$129.41

  • Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?

    Right

    Politics

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    36%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    87%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    73%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    14%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    19%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Porto 2: Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Jacob Fearnley

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Jacob Fearnley
    Won
    Jacob Fearnley
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    22%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Alejo Sanchez Quilez-$231
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Alejo Sanchez Quilez-$116.36
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Alejo Sanchez Quilez-$74.55

  • Will Paris FC win on 2026-09-30?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    7%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Yes-$621.87
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes-$391.05
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Yes-$198.35

  • Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gauthier Onclin

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg
    Won
    Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    60%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg+$775.46
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg+$348.71
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Gauthier Onclin-$114.97

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    38%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$35.82
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$24.13
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$11

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    7%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    23%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$40.79
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$36.46
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$21.77

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    48%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$100.05
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$31.90
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Up-$9.90

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    12%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$63.91
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$41.63
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$16.33

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    21%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    15%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    16%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$256.01
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$162.94
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$86.47

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    57%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    52%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$24.79
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$20.65
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$15.59

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    24%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$175.82
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$169.70
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$43.89

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$27.34
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$21.04
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$10.81

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    68%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$61.49
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$30.10
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down+$3.61

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bari: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Lorenzo Angelini

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Lorenzo Angelini
    Won
    Gianluca Cadenasso
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    12%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Lorenzo Angelini-$1,579.74
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Lorenzo Angelini-$791.71
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Lorenzo Angelini-$451.58

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$101.54
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$51.28
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$26.94

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    19
    Confidence
    5%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$82.38
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$19.89
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$7.61

  • Bitcoin Up or Down on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    9%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    52%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • China Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Elvina Kalieva

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Viktorija Golubic
    Won
    Viktorija Golubic
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    22%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Viktorija Golubic+$3,767.65
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Elvina Kalieva-$1,079.21
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Viktorija Golubic+$613.20

  • W100 Templeton, CA: Julieta Pareja vs Thea Frodin

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Julieta Pareja
    Won
    Julieta Pareja
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    22%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    K27
    Won
    K27
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    26%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      K27-$2,070.10
    • S
      DonkooLast traded
      CYBERSHOKE Esports-$1,005.29
    • S
      antecLast traded
      K27-$314.29

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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