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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • China Open: Mai Hontama vs Katie Boulter

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Mai Hontama
    Won
    Katie Boulter
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    7%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5)

    Wrong

    WNBA

    Called
    Las Vegas Aces
    Won
    Indiana Fever
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    17%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Jingshan: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexandre Muller

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Mattia Bellucci
    Won
    Mattia Bellucci
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    93%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Jingshan: Chenting Zhu vs Emerson Jones

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Emerson Jones
    Won
    Emerson Jones
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    22%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Emerson Jones-$1,530.24
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Chenting Zhu-$457.36
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Chenting Zhu+$374.62

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    46%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$268.21
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$178.53
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$79.28

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    39%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • United States vs. Chile: O/U 4.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    42%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    79%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    52%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      m3t64 - 815Last traded
      Yes-$199.75
    • A
      AliciaLast traded
      No+$87.79
    • A
      ChimsLast traded
      No+$9.63

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    41%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$89.52
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Up+$86.54
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$51.91

  • LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Kaufland Hangry Knights
    Won
    Kaufland Hangry Knights
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    18%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      antecLast traded
      Kaufland Hangry Knights-$692.67
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition-$532.62
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      Kaufland Hangry Knights+$349.67

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$61.30
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$35.07
    • S
      drfc4eybh7i8Last traded
      Down+$16.16

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    51%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W100 Templeton, CA: Kristina Penickova vs Iryna Shymanovich

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Kristina Penickova
    Won
    Kristina Penickova
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    10%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Paris FC vs. Arsenal WFC: O/U 4.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    2%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over-$197.43
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over-$157.57
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$147.21

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    35%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W100 Templeton, CA: Kayla Cross vs Whitney Osuigwe

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Whitney Osuigwe
    Won
    Whitney Osuigwe
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    32%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    21%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    80%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    21%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$153.09
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$90.90
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$73.44

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    23%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?

    No consensus

    AI

    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    51%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    18%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    44%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET

    No consensus

    Crypto

    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    12%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    5%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    12%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Dark-CrawdadLast traded
      Up-$161.45
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$48
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$35.90

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    15%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    13%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$138.06
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$39.53
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down-$14.49

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    18
    Confidence
    19%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$50.09
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$10.61
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Up+$10.08

  • Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5

    Wrong

    Baseball

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Over-$5,190.70
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$2,008.89
    • S
      primmLast traded
      Over-$1,031.49

  • Canucks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5

    Right

    Hockey

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    42%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Parcl

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Lithuania vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    26%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under-$2,780.35
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Under-$1,422.24
    • S
      GC-PLast traded
      Under-$822.39

  • Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    38%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$883.16
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$921.59
    • A
      HourglassLast traded
      Yes-$605.20

  • Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    24%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$881.04
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$920.06
    • A
      HourglassLast traded
      Yes-$604.63

  • Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    21%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Philadelphia Phillies
    Won
    Philadelphia Phillies
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    42%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Adana: Lois Boisson vs Martyna Kubka

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Lois Boisson
    Won
    Lois Boisson
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    88%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Lois Boisson-$3,272.71
    • S
      tradecraftLast traded
      Lois Boisson+$671.76
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Lois Boisson+$533.04

  • Adana: Antonia Ruzic vs Julia Riera

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Antonia Ruzic
    Won
    Antonia Ruzic
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    48%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    77%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$353.54
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$149.19
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down+$65.20

  • W35 Reims: Seda Baslilar vs Heerae Im

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Heerae Im
    Won
    Heerae Im
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      HVABLast traded
      Heerae Im+$945.05
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      Seda Baslilar-$211.46
    • S
      Rock.SanLast traded
      Heerae Im+$6.70

  • Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 0.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    28%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under-$1,355.73
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under-$551.17
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      Over+$243.56

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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