Skip to content
Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    67%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No+$88.41
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No+$74.78
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No+$46.97

  • LoL: JSK Esports vs Skillcamp Esport (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Skillcamp Esport
    Won
    Skillcamp Esport
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    83%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Future-Tarot-TraderLast traded
      Skillcamp Esport+$8.13
    • S
      antecLast traded
      Skillcamp Esport+$6.37
    • S
      qwe258Last traded
      Skillcamp Esport+$5.85

  • Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Besiktas

    No consensus

    Basketball

    Won
    Besiktas
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    0%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?

    Right

    Geopolitics

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    80%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$59.95
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Up-$27.12
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$11.24

  • Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Atlanta Braves
    Won
    Atlanta Braves
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Atlanta Braves+$1,216.74
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Atlanta Braves+$709.16
    • S
      primmLast traded
      Philadelphia Phillies-$343.78

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    40%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$401.47
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$167.35
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$106.09

  • Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    22%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    5%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-08-11?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    46%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Yes-$2,841.46
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$1,036.81
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      No+$744

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    54%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Curitiba: Gustavo Heide vs Felipe Meligeni Alves

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Felipe Meligeni Alves
    Won
    Gustavo Heide
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    13%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      TRCMLast traded
      Felipe Meligeni Alves-$331.60
    • S
      CandleHammerDrumsLast traded
      Gustavo Heide+$314.70
    • S
      thestingsnakeLast traded
      Felipe Meligeni Alves-$302.58

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    42%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$111.57
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$43.37
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$30.42

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    28%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down-$35.18
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$24.89
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$24.38

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Parcl

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    88%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    24%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    5%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    49%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    35%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$135.75
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$77.03
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$17.77

  • Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?

    Right

    China

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    93%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$65.95
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$118.83
    • A
      Admirable-TrustLast traded
      No-$105.08

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    19%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down-$103.39
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$33.71
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$13.25

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    12%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Jingshan: Masamichi Imamura vs Petr Bar Biryukov

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Petr Bar Biryukov
    Won
    Petr Bar Biryukov
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    92%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    56%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs maybe - Map 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    maybe
    Won
    maybe
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    35%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    35%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    66%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    51%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    55%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    41%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    21%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    17
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5)

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    T1 Academy
    Won
    T1 Academy
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    14%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • BK Häcken FF vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    81%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$5,843.44
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over+$690
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      Over+$318.85

  • Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Semente do Mal (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Group Stage

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    MIBR fe
    Won
    MIBR fe
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    86%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W100 Templeton, CA: Carmen Andreea Herea vs Allura Zamarripa

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Carmen Andreea Herea
    Won
    Carmen Andreea Herea
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    31%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Botafogo FC vs. AA Ponte Preta: O/U 2.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    49%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$3,270.79
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$1,680.68
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over-$205.60

  • Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    15%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5

    Right

    WNBA

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    73%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M25 Slobozia: Stefan Adrian Andreescu vs Radu Mihai Papoe

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Radu Mihai Papoe
    Won
    Radu Mihai Papoe
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    20%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • LoL: HMBLE vs Barça eSports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Barça eSports
    Won
    Barça eSports
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    44%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner

    Wrong

    Esports

    Called
    Cloud Dawning
    Won
    Yangon Galacticos
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    14%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

Pro opens the full roster: 17,587 more positions across 1,922 markets on this day.

Upgrade to Pro · $99/moabout $3.30/day
Developer docs