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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      aHjCzLast traded
      No+$150.09
    • A
      molodoyyLast traded
      Yes+$135
    • A
      AiBirdLast traded
      Yes+$60.14

  • Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?

    Right

    Politics

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    36%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    4%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    42%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    44%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    2%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    19%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Esport BERG - Map 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    ex-RUSTEC
    Won
    ex-RUSTEC
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    64%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    24%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$43.02
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$40.38
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$27.45

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    51%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-09-30?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    37%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Yes-$382.16
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes-$198.57
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No+$145.47

  • Jingshan: Lloyd Harris vs Alexis Galarneau

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Lloyd Harris
    Won
    Lloyd Harris
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    35%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$46.74
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$44.34
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$41.83

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    37%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    23%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      asdaefefLast traded
      Down-$55.86
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down-$18.24
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$17.35

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    79%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    35%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$174.66
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$91.47
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$55.54

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    16%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$135.24
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$102.29
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$90.58

  • Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    PARIVISION
    Won
    PARIVISION
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    39%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      antecLast traded
      PARIVISION-$161.43
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      PARIVISION+$59.57
    • A
      BAPEHUKLast traded
      LGD Gaming-$363.79

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$63.62
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$28.72
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down-$12.47

  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?

    Right

    Economy

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$19.43
    • A
      0xzipperLast traded
      Yes-$642.99
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$22.02

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    42%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    30%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    79%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Up+$60.31
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$7.06
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Up+$0.73

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$115.20
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$105.81
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Up+$10.46

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    65%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      iutwpfalLast traded
      No+$68.36
    • A
      NostdamLast traded
      Yes-$64.52
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No+$36.63

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$236.85
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$137.03
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$118.84

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    32%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    32%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    46%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$51.46
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$50.20
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$10.21

  • Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    45%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    13%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$28.56
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$23.07
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$18.46

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    54%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    65%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    18%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$103.04
    • S
      Dark-CrawdadLast traded
      Down-$99.99
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$89.03

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$64.22
    • S
      drfc4eybh7i8Last traded
      Down-$18.87
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Up+$12.75

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    44%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    59%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    19%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    32%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: LAG Gaming vs Marsborne - Map 1 Winner

    No consensus

    Esports

    Won
    LAG Gaming
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    0%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    41%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    16
    Confidence
    15%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: Krytiepacani vs Omega - Map 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Krytiepacani
    Won
    Krytiepacani
    Profitable wallets
    15
    Confidence
    85%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Krytiepacani+$8,427.63
    • S
      DonkooLast traded
      Krytiepacani+$574.11
    • A
      lma0o0o0oLast traded
      Omega-$3,258.59

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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