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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Dota 2: Team Yandex vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Team Yandex
    Won
    Team Yandex
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    63%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • LoL: G2 NORD vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    G2 NORD
    Won
    G2 NORD
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    71%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • LoL: eSuba vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    UCAM Esports Club
    Won
    UCAM Esports Club
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    67%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs NightBirds - Game 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    NightBirds
    Won
    NightBirds
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    22%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down+$234.89
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$143.21
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$121.49

  • LoL: eSuba vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    eSuba
    Won
    eSuba
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    15%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will AS Roma win on 2026-09-30?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    71%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      No+$304.11
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$237.52
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      No+$142.21

  • Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs Turma do Pagode (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Turma do Pagode
    Won
    Turma do Pagode
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-30?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Yes+$1,457.49
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Yes+$1,281.05
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      No-$1,279.77

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$168.96
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$139.94
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$130.32

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    16%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Jingshan: Omar Jasika vs Dane Sweeny

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Dane Sweeny
    Won
    Dane Sweeny
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    20%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    39%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Up-$67.30
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$50.78
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$10.33

  • Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    24
    Confidence
    57%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Adana: Erika Andreeva vs Simona Waltert

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Erika Andreeva
    Won
    Erika Andreeva
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    74%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Erika Andreeva+$13,293.99
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Erika Andreeva+$8,719.80
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Erika Andreeva+$2,511.62

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    96%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$310.82
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$43.87
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$18.21

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    12%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Up-$48.64
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$40.52
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$19

  • Columbus: Andrew Fenty vs Dylan Dietrich

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Dylan Dietrich
    Won
    Dylan Dietrich
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    3%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Dylan Dietrich-$2,711.31
    • S
      tradecraftLast traded
      Dylan Dietrich+$1,076.05
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Andrew Fenty+$834.29

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs MAGAZA (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Bushido Wildcats
    Won
    Bushido Wildcats
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    6%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      newwmanLast traded
      MAGAZA-$1,353.23
    • S
      antecLast traded
      Bushido Wildcats+$307.24
    • S
      Future-Tarot-TraderLast traded
      Bushido Wildcats+$130.87

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    18%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    22%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$312.79
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$81.87
    • S
      Dark-CrawdadLast traded
      Down-$74.69

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    24%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Dark-CrawdadLast traded
      Up+$36.08
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$20.52
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$14.93

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    22%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$86.78
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$18.67
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down-$12.74

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    23
    Confidence
    12%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bari: Zsombor Piros vs Enrico Dalla Valle

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Enrico Dalla Valle
    Won
    Enrico Dalla Valle
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    63%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Enrico Dalla Valle+$5,691.22
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Enrico Dalla Valle+$3,131.12
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Enrico Dalla Valle+$639.44

  • Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 182.5

    Right

    WNBA

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    14%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    17%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    19%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • China Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Lilli Tagger

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Gabriela Ruse
    Won
    Gabriela Ruse
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    31%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Gabriela Ruse+$4,850.42
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Lilli Tagger-$2,405.18
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Gabriela Ruse+$1,711.51

  • Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    37%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$798.03
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No-$828.20
    • A
      HourglassLast traded
      No-$569.05

  • Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W75 Quinta do Lago: Caroline Werner vs Eva Vedder

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Eva Vedder
    Won
    Eva Vedder
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    18%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      HVABLast traded
      Eva Vedder-$2,662.28
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Caroline Werner-$2,202.35
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Eva Vedder+$929.97

  • LoL: HMBLE vs Barça eSports - Game 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Barça eSports
    Won
    Barça eSports
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    14%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Japan Open Tennis Championships: Arthur Fils vs Luca Van Assche

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Arthur Fils
    Won
    Arthur Fils
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    8%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Luca Van Assche-$991.82
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Arthur Fils+$676.50
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Luca Van Assche-$581

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    28%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$69.16
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$64.62
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$22.24

  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    24%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down+$233.83
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$55.11
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$44.26

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    12%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Eritrea win on 2026-09-30?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    59%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    7%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: megoshort vs eternal premium (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    eternal premium
    Won
    eternal premium
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    52%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    51%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Deportivo Pereira vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 3.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    40%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$41.33
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$20.92
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Up+$10.42

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    22
    Confidence
    30%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$45.17
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$12.49
    • S
      drfc4eybh7i8Last traded
      Down+$7.48

  • Spread: Mexico (-1.5)

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Peru
    Won
    Peru
    Profitable wallets
    21
    Confidence
    74%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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