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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    47%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$84.08
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Down+$35.52
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$21.64

  • Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    54%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs K27 - Map 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    K27
    Won
    K27
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      DonkooLast traded
      CYBERSHOKE Esports-$517.70
    • S
      antecLast traded
      K27-$94.81
    • A
      WillBeQuantLast traded
      K27+$766.31

  • Seychelles vs. Sri Lanka: O/U 3.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    67%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Under+$175.45
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$124
    • S
      GC-PLast traded
      Under+$51.51

  • Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    60%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M25 Kigali: Kael Shalin Shah vs Caheer Warik

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Caheer Warik
    Won
    Caheer Warik
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    39%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    46%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    69%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W100 Templeton, CA: Anna Rogers vs Francesca Pace

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Francesca Pace
    Won
    Francesca Pace
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    8%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv

    Right

    Basketball

    Called
    Hapoel Tel Aviv
    Won
    Hapoel Tel Aviv
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    20%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    71%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    57%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Games Total: O/U 2.5

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    62%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    69%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      molodoyyLast traded
      Yes-$125.72
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No+$47.10
    • A
      aHjCzLast traded
      Yes-$6

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will BK Häcken FF vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    18%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$390.98
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Yes-$71.75
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes-$51.30

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    38%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $512,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    89%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in September?

    Right

    Economy

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    46%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?

    No consensus

    Recurring

    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Games Total: O/U 3.5

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    9%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will ByteDance have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.42
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.69
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.79

  • Will Nvidia have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.47
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.59
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.79

  • Will Meituan have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.41
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.69
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.79

  • Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: Rush vs Grêmio Esports - Map 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Rush
    Won
    Rush
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    57%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,216,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Housing

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    71%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Botafogo FC vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    56%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      No+$156.81
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$51.32
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Yes-$27.39

  • Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    83%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    7%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$68.08
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$65.67
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      Yes-$7.12

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    39%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    73%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Miami be at least $1,196,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Housing

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    63%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$27.12
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$70.71
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$22.28

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    48%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    71%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will SpaceXAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$68.08
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$65.49
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$15.66

  • Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    54%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2PM ET

    No consensus

    Crypto

    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,161,000 and $1,196,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Housing

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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