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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

Settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    7%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    13%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)

    Right

    Hockey

    Called
    Panthers
    Won
    Panthers
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    27%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Fenerbahce vs. FC Bayern Munchen

    No consensus

    Basketball

    Won
    Fenerbahce
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Rock.SanLast traded
      FC Bayern Munchen-$354.64
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Fenerbahce+$112.75
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      FC Bayern Munchen-$50.27

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    22%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Down+$195.74
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$132.18
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$62.45

  • Belize vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines: O/U 2.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    4%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    69%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,185,000 and $1,201,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    40%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    83%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026?

    No consensus

    Geopolitics

    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    88%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in NYC be at least $689,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Housing

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    68%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    13%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Down-$352.98
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$230.12
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$69.51

  • Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs mellren - Map 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    mellren
    Won
    mellren
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      antecLast traded
      mellren-$206.12
    • S
      TommyLeePeecaLast traded
      mellren+$84.82
    • A
      noxmeLast traded
      mellren+$12.27

  • Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    67%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $536,000 and $542,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Housing

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    57%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Up+$1,217.90
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$409.28
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$88.17

  • Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    23%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    82%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    5%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$44.04
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$34.62
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$15.95

  • Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    54%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Sint Maarten win on 2026-09-29?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    67%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      No+$119.11
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      No+$56.08
    • S
      antecLast traded
      No-$49.73

  • Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    82%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Under+$3,510.74
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$439.36
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$433.94

  • United States leading at halftime?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    25%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Tamworth FC vs. Sutton United FC: Both Teams to Score

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    92%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      No+$429.16
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      No+$412.16
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No+$386.69

  • Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5

    Wrong

    Baseball

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    52%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Mexico vs. Peru: Both Teams to Score

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    8%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    30%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Games Total: O/U 2.5

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    88%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Set Handicap: Arthur Gea (-1.5) vs Zhizhen Zhang (+1.5)

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Zhizhen Zhang
    Won
    Arthur Gea
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    16%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    40%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Dana White's Contender Series: Zaurbek Sabanov vs. Adama Diop (Heavyweight, Main Card)

    Right

    MMA

    Called
    Adama Diop
    Won
    Adama Diop
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    39%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Adama Diop+$81.54
    • A
      fatdog-012Last traded
      Adama Diop+$85.89
    • A
      zxcursed121Last traded
      Zaurbek Sabanov+$0.46

  • Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 30?

    Wrong

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Houston Astros
    Won
    Houston Astros
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    43%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Houston Astros+$501.05
    • S
      primmLast traded
      Houston Astros+$494.10
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Houston Astros+$471.62

  • Spread: South Africa (-1.5)

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Eritrea
    Won
    South Africa
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    27%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Eritrea-$1,024.06
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Eritrea-$711.36
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      South Africa+$402.03

  • Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty: O/U 174.5

    Wrong

    WNBA

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    67%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Eastleigh FC vs. Southend United FC: O/U 1.5

    No consensus

    Soccer

    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    0%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under-$1,038.15
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under-$51.27
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Under-$30.64

  • M15 Fayetteville, AR: Alejandro Melero Kretzer vs Alejandro Arcila

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Alejandro Melero Kretzer
    Won
    Alejandro Melero Kretzer
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in September?

    Wrong

    Economy

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    83%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: San Diego Padres (-7.5)

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    San Diego Padres
    Won
    San Diego Padres
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • United States vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    47%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Independiente Medellín vs. Millonarios FC: O/U 2.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    11%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $820 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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