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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    47%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    22%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$30.04
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$18.13
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Up-$13.50

  • Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    47%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Oilers (-1.5)

    Wrong

    Hockey

    Called
    Oilers
    Won
    Canucks
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    16%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Oilers-$173.63
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Oilers-$26.43
    • A
      dv-pmLast traded
      Oilers-$500.66

  • Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    16%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Kinetix (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Team Kinetix
    Won
    Team Kinetix
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    6%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$152.67
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$72.83
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down+$9.92

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    93%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    7%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $486,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    89%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    36%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    28%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    36%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$37.65
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$5.46
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Up-$0.05

  • Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5

    Wrong

    Hockey

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    68%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      NordhavenCapLast traded
      Over-$274.67
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$242.19
    • A
      dv-pmLast traded
      Over-$4,828.98

  • Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Parcl

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    53%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Houston Astros
    Won
    Houston Astros
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    8%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Games Total: O/U 2.5

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    7%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      antecLast traded
      Over+$226
    • A
      am100Last traded
      Under-$584.76
    • A
      ameisgoat11Last traded
      Over+$84.75

  • Game Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs eSuba (+1.5)

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    eSuba
    Won
    eSuba
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    44%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Team Spirit
    Won
    Team Spirit
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: MEIA NOITE vs QUINTESSÊNCIA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Playoffs

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    QUINTESSÊNCIA
    Won
    QUINTESSÊNCIA
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    5%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Parcl

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    22%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: Sangal vs ENCE (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #7 Playoffs

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Sangal
    Won
    Sangal
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    88%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Panthers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5

    Wrong

    Hockey

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    22%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5)

    Wrong

    WNBA

    Called
    Minnesota Lynx
    Won
    New York Liberty
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    4%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    57%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?

    Right

    PCE

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Map Handicap: SNG (-1.5) vs KUUSAMO.gg (+1.5)

    Wrong

    Esports

    Called
    KUUSAMO.gg
    Won
    Sangal
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    16%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?

    Wrong

    OpenAI

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    69%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Eritrea vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    93%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Over+$755.92
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over+$592.29
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over-$357.37

  • Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)

    Wrong

    Baseball

    Called
    Houston Astros
    Won
    Chicago White Sox
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    23%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    78%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on September 30?

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    58%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    37%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    58%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W75 Quinta do Lago: Naiktha Bains vs Maria Martinez Vaquero

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Naiktha Bains
    Won
    Naiktha Bains
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    20%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Maria Martinez Vaquero-$364.04
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Naiktha Bains+$176.57
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      Naiktha Bains+$48.19

  • Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Aruba win on 2026-09-29?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    30%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Peru
    Won
    Peru
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Peru+$525.49
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Peru+$227.12
    • S
      ColdMathLast traded
      Peru+$40

  • Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    57%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-08-05?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    91%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W35 Reims: Margaux Komano vs Klara Veldman

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Margaux Komano
    Won
    Klara Veldman
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: Grêmio Esports vs QUINTESSÊNCIA - Map 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Grêmio Esports
    Won
    Grêmio Esports
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    91%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    48%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-09-29?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      NM-PLast traded
      Yes+$296.38
    • S
      GC-PLast traded
      Yes+$186.69
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Yes+$65.19

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    9
    Confidence
    13%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Up+$315.82
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$34.94
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$10.52

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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