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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    58%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$179.99
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Up+$119.29
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Down-$108.42

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    65%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    12%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    28%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$157.59
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down+$72.37
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Up-$49.20

  • Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs K27 - Map 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    CYBERSHOKE Esports
    Won
    CYBERSHOKE Esports
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    90%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      DonkooLast traded
      CYBERSHOKE Esports+$98.12
    • S
      antecLast traded
      CYBERSHOKE Esports+$41.54
    • A
      backboxLast traded
      CYBERSHOKE Esports+$436.88

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    12%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $454,000 and $462,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Parcl

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    5%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    30%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$109.44
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$87.07
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$3.55

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    4%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$61.11
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$47.63
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$30.33

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • LoL: Estral Esports vs 9z Globant - Game 3 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Estral Esports
    Won
    Estral Esports
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      bloodmasterLast traded
      Estral Esports+$191.05
    • A
      gejbrLast traded
      9z Globant+$160.89
    • A
      38791873984189Last traded
      9z Globant+$2.98

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    40%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    18%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    22%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Eastleigh FC win on 2026-09-30?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    54%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No+$366.72
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes-$329.99
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$128.05

  • Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on September 29?

    Wrong

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?

    Right

    Economy

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    77%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    16%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    23%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Yangon Galacticos
    Won
    Yangon Galacticos
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    57%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      dabossrealmanLast traded
      Yangon Galacticos+$70.03
    • A
      BookWarriorLast traded
      Yangon Galacticos+$60.09
    • A
      calculate10Last traded
      Yangon Galacticos+$7.26

  • BC Dubai vs. Barcelona

    Right

    Basketball

    Called
    BC Dubai
    Won
    BC Dubai
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    23%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • LoL: Estral Esports vs 9z Globant (BO5) - CBLOL Promotion Playoffs

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Estral Esports
    Won
    Estral Esports
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    57%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Baidu have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.47
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.68
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No-$26.65

  • Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$190.61
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$164.32
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      Yes+$158.48

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    70%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.47
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.70
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.79

  • Will Mistral have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.47
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.60
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.79

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.10
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.59
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.77

  • W35 Wagga Wagga: Kanon Sawashiro vs Olga Danilova

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Kanon Sawashiro
    Won
    Kanon Sawashiro
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Alibaba have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.42
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.67
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.79

  • Will Microsoft have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.08
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.59
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.75

  • United States vs. Chile: O/U 1.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    8%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.44
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.59
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.71

  • Will MiniMax have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.37
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.65
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.76

  • Paris FC vs. Arsenal WFC: O/U 2.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    60%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$448.16
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under-$432.65
    • S
      ColdMathLast traded
      Over+$78

  • Will Google have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    78%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$68.24
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No-$63.95
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$16.13

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Eritrea vs. South Africa end in a draw?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    26%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    63%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    75%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Pump.fun reach $0.0058 by December 31, 2026?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    54%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    47%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    7%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    88%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    10
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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