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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
78%
1,910 right535 wrong

All wallets: 91% on the same markets.

Settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,783

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Tennis

    Called
    Raquel Caballero Chica
    Won
    Raquel Caballero Chica
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    64%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET

    No consensus

    Crypto

    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    0%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    67%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will DeepSeek be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 25°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      Yes-$5.68
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No-$3.64
    • A
      aHjCzLast traded
      No-$1.33
  • Will Baidu be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will Meta be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      NM-PLast traded
      No+$5.04
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      No+$1.30
    • A
      LuckyLooLast traded
      No+$4.07
  • Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?

    Right

    Politics

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Solana Up or Down - September 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

    No consensus

    Crypto

    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will Meituan be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Tennis

    Called
    Rodrigo Alujas
    Won
    Rodrigo Alujas
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    25%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Rodrigo Alujas+$14.76
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Mehluli Don Ayanda Sibanda-$29.07
    • B
      CrovaxLast traded
      Rodrigo Alujas+$70.52
  • Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    43%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes-$196.72
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No+$104.86
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      No+$36.16
  • Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$4.60
    • B
      glm4.1.fundLast traded
      No-$8.52
    • B
      daegothLast traded
      No+$3.16
  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 in September?

    Wrong

    Stocks

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Tennis

    Called
    Chan-Yeong Oh
    Won
    Chan-Yeong Oh
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    43%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      38791873984189Last traded
      Chan-Yeong Oh+$52.32
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Sasikumar Mukund-$23.70
    • A
      0xbfD770B7ff0Last traded
      Chan-Yeong Oh-$18.52
  • Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Tennis

    Called
    Alejandro Tabilo
    Won
    Alejandro Tabilo
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    80%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Tennis

    Called
    Lukas Pokorny
    Won
    Lukas Pokorny
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Lukas Pokorny+$12.50
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Valentin Vanta-$42.54
    • A
      ghostorderLast traded
      Lukas Pokorny+$19
  • XRP Up or Down - September 30, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Solana Up or Down - September 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will ByteDance be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • XRP Up or Down - September 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will MiniMax have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.18% in September?

    Right

    Economy

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    67%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will MiniMax have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$21.12
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      Yes+$35.46
    • B
      glm4.1.fundLast traded
      Yes-$8.81
  • Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will Trump say "22" this week?

    Right

    Politics

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Tennis

    Called
    Juan Manuel Cerundolo
    Won
    Juan Manuel Cerundolo
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    75%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Tennis

    Called
    Emilien Demanet
    Won
    Emilien Demanet
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    11%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Rock.SanLast traded
      Emilien Demanet+$0.08
    • A
      38791873984189Last traded
      Louis Tessa-$71.98
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Louis Tessa-$26.65
  • Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Esports

    Called
    HyperSpirit
    Won
    INFURITY Gaming
    Profitable wallets
    3
    Confidence
    20%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      JohnLKellyJrLast traded
      HyperSpirit-$3,721.13
    • A
      backboxLast traded
      INFURITY Gaming+$51.20
    • B
      0x0820-2Last traded
      HyperSpirit-$26.66
  • Esports

    Called
    HyperSpirit
    Won
    INFURITY Gaming
    Profitable wallets
    3
    Confidence
    67%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    3
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$1,443.11
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over-$342.43
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$39.45
  • S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on September 30?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    3
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Hockey

    Called
    HC Sochi
    Won
    HC Sochi
    Profitable wallets
    3
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      HC Sochi+$1,063.60
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      HC Sochi+$50.02
    • B
      Kuntro2Last traded
      HC Sochi+$303
  • Soccer

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    3
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,711 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

Pro opens the full roster: 17,926 more positions across 1,944 markets on this day.