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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
78%
1,910 right535 wrong

All wallets: 91% on the same markets.

Settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,783

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Will MiniMax be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W15 Sharm ElSheikh: Nina Rudiukova vs Ksenia Smirnova

    No consensus

    Tennis

    Won
    Ksenia Smirnova
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    0%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • XRP Up or Down - September 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will SpaceXAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?

    No consensus

    AI

    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • B
      lamykLast traded
      Yes-$105.89
    • B
      AJSVLast traded
      Yes+$48.07
    • B
      X-Rabbit.SezuLast traded
      No+$6.84

  • Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Chile?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.12% in September?

    Right

    Economy

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      AiBirdLast traded
      No+$4.86
    • B
      podairpodLast traded
      No+$44.56
    • B
      PPMTLast traded
      No+$0.80

  • Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    71%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M15 Sharm ElSheikh: Jan Hrazdil vs Dzmitry Dziubailau

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Dzmitry Dziubailau
    Won
    Dzmitry Dziubailau
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    25%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Hard-IroncladLast traded
      Dzmitry Dziubailau+$3.68
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Jan Hrazdil-$122.98
    • B
      Pan9XLast traded
      Jan Hrazdil+$39.50

  • Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.07% in September?

    No consensus

    Finance

    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • B
      Vagabund97Last traded
      No-$89.64
    • B
      title1Last traded
      Yes+$34.45
    • B
      AJSVLast traded
      No+$32.36

  • Will Amazon be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    56%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will SpaceXAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$11.84
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      Yes-$11.63
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No-$3.73

  • Will Microsoft be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    56%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on September 30?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    78%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 2 Group Stage

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Heretics
    Won
    Heretics
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    14%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    14%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • XRP Up or Down - September 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET

    No consensus

    Crypto

    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M15 Luan: Yuta Tomida vs Xirui Han

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Yuta Tomida
    Won
    Yuta Tomida
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Solana Up or Down - September 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in September?

    Right

    Economy

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • B
      uncoLast traded
      No+$21.25
    • B
      title1Last traded
      No+$21.19
    • B
      TalophexLast traded
      No+$0.29

  • Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    78%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    75%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$22.70
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No-$9.05
    • B
      glm4.1.fundLast traded
      Yes-$8.81

  • Will Russia target Kyiv on September 29, 2026?

    Right

    Geopolitics

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      RobbbLast traded
      Yes+$17.39
    • B
      Bromley86Last traded
      Yes+$28.28
    • B
      AJSVLast traded
      No-$10.22

  • Will the price of Solana be above $125 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Lithuania vs. Andorra: 1st Half O/U 2.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    23%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over-$71.57
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Under+$28.99
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$6.44

  • Solana Up or Down - September 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Micron (MU) beat quarterly earnings?

    Right

    Earnings

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Belize vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines: O/U 3.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ColdMathLast traded
      Under+$112.28
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$76.38
    • B
      Makila10Last traded
      Under+$4.58

  • Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    56%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Botafogo FC vs. AA Ponte Preta: O/U 6.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$38.65
    • B
      NotJumpLast traded
      Under+$0.65
    • B
      Xander-XXLast traded
      Under+$0.27

  • Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 30?

    Wrong

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Amazon be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$6.77
    • A
      aHjCzLast traded
      Yes-$9.99
    • B
      glm4.1.fundLast traded
      No-$15.02

  • Exact Score: AS Roma 2 - 3 FC Barcelona?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    27%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      Yes-$31.85
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$24.28
    • A
      LuckyLooLast traded
      No+$28.91

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$22.66
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      Yes-$4.08
    • B
      glm4.1.fundLast traded
      Yes-$8.86

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    56%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Down+$5.20
    • A
      CERTovaLast traded
      Down+$15.86
    • A
      HcrystallashLast traded
      Up+$2.46

  • Solana Up or Down - September 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Solana Up or Down - September 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Solana Up or Down - September 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

    No consensus

    Crypto

    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

    No consensus

    Crypto

    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    71%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    67%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    4
    Confidence
    46%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Down-$27.42
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$15.43
    • A
      CERTovaLast traded
      Up+$43.01

18,711 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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