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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
78%
1,910 right535 wrong

All wallets: 91% on the same markets.

Settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,783

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    67%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% in September?

    Right

    Economy

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    75%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    75%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.24% in September?

    Wrong

    Economy

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will Core PCE MoM be 0.5% or more in August?

    Right

    PCE

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$82.14
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$7.52
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      Yes+$5.20
  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    37%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    57%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Esports

    Called
    mellren
    Won
    mellren
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    77%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Esports

    Called
    MEIA NOITE
    Won
    MEIA NOITE
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on September 30?

    Wrong

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    78%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    75%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Solana Up or Down - September 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    23%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on September 29?

    No consensus

    Weather

    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    88%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Under+$13.81
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$0.97
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$0.56
  • Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $840 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    67%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    85%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    71%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Solana Up or Down - September 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?

    Wrong

    Stocks

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    80%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Esports

    Called
    ALKA
    Won
    ALKA
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    69%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    82%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      C03BLast traded
      No+$0.66
    • A
      AliciaLast traded
      No+$50.94
    • A
      CoinTrickLast traded
      No+$1
  • Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    39%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$40.97
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$6.45
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      Yes+$5.33
  • Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 30?

    Wrong

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$44.65
    • S
      zxc368Last traded
      Under+$0.07
    • A
      pauleta23Last traded
      Under+$1.35
  • Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$22.56
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No-$8.95
    • A
      merodLast traded
      Yes-$6.56
  • Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on September 29?

    Wrong

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Tennis

    Called
    Charo Esquiva Banuls
    Won
    Charo Esquiva Banuls
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    20%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Carmen Lopez Martinez-$57.24
    • S
      CandleHammerDrumsLast traded
      Charo Esquiva Banuls+$13.97
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Carmen Lopez Martinez-$25.69
  • Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    78%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    80%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will StepFun be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    23%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$25.73
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      Yes+$19.19
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$15.64
  • Esports

    Called
    Grêmio Esports
    Won
    Grêmio Esports
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    80%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    80%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Solana Up or Down - September 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
  • Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    58%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under-$406.14
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over+$256.74
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$72.50
  • Will Meta be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$11.94
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      Yes-$7.50
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$4.65
  • Esports

    Called
    QUINTESSÊNCIA
    Won
    QUINTESSÊNCIA
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    53%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,711 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

Pro opens the full roster: 17,926 more positions across 1,944 markets on this day.