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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
78%
1,910 right535 wrong

All wallets: 91% on the same markets.

Settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,783

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Will the median home value in the US be between $440,000 and $447,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    67%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M15 Fayetteville, AR: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Jerry Roddick

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Johan Alexander Rodriguez
    Won
    Johan Alexander Rodriguez
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Johan Alexander Rodriguez+$227.29
    • S
      CandleHammerDrumsLast traded
      Johan Alexander Rodriguez+$0.05
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Johan Alexander Rodriguez+$57.30

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    58%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Up-$1,524.56
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$475.53
    • S
      drfc4eybh7i8Last traded
      Down-$37.36

  • Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in August?

    Wrong

    PCE

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M25 Darwin: Zaharije-Zak Talic vs Adrian Arcon

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Adrian Arcon
    Won
    Zaharije-Zak Talic
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    64%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Adrian Arcon-$55.28
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Adrian Arcon-$106.27
    • A
      38791873984189Last traded
      Adrian Arcon-$56.94

  • OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 5.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$216.23
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      Under+$86.38
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$42.30

  • Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

    Wrong

    Baseball

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    69%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W15 Monastir: nour sahnoun vs Camila Zouein Yanez

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    nour sahnoun
    Won
    nour sahnoun
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    64%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    23%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M25 Darwin: Lachlan Vickery vs Jack Bruce-Smith

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Jack Bruce-Smith
    Won
    Lachlan Vickery
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    82%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Jack Bruce-Smith-$26.98
    • A
      38791873984189Last traded
      Jack Bruce-Smith-$104.06
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Jack Bruce-Smith-$29.13

  • Lithuania vs. Andorra: Andorra O/U 0.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    78%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    47%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • United States vs. Chile: 1st Half O/U 1.5

    No consensus

    Soccer

    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    0%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • LoL: Hong Kong vs South Korea (BO1) - Asian Games Group B

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    South Korea
    Won
    South Korea
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • South Africa leading at halftime?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Exact Score: Seychelles 0 - 0 Sri Lanka?

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    39%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?

    Right

    Mexico

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    78%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W15 Monastir: Sophia Biolay vs Kristina Kroitor

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Kristina Kroitor
    Won
    Sophia Biolay
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    46%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Exact Score: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 1 FC Bayern München?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    50%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No+$122.31
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes-$115.22
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$9.95

  • Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    71%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    13%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M15 Fayetteville, AR: Gabriel Elicha Navas vs Tito Chavez

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Tito Chavez
    Won
    Tito Chavez
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    57%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Tamworth FC vs. Sutton United FC: O/U 3.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    88%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ColdMathLast traded
      Under+$135.14
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$43.57
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$39.47

  • Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.00 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    11%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Seychelles vs. Sri Lanka: Both Teams to Score

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    7%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $320,000 and $325,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    60%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No+$52.90
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No+$14.95
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No+$1.39

  • Will the median home value in NYC be less than $555,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Exact Score: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 2 FC Bayern München?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    62%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      youngwhaleLast traded
      No+$136.41
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$21.84
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No+$18.76

  • Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W15 Maanshan: Alina Yuneva vs Albina Kakenova

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Albina Kakenova
    Won
    Albina Kakenova
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    85%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    71%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • BK Häcken FF vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    58%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ColdMathLast traded
      Under+$43.58
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$40.54
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over-$19.94

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    20%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $352 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Solana Up or Down - September 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    38%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Set Handicap: Novak Djokovic (-1.5) vs Nuno Borges (+1.5)

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Nuno Borges
    Won
    Novak Djokovic
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,711 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

Pro opens the full roster: 17,926 more positions across 1,944 markets on this day.

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