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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
78%
1,910 right535 wrong

All wallets: 91% on the same markets.

Settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,783

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 5.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    47%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)

    Wrong

    Baseball

    Called
    Chicago Cubs
    Won
    San Diego Padres
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    9%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in NYC be between $555,000 and $582,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    47%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    82%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Peru?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    55%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No+$45.28
    • S
      GC-PLast traded
      No+$39.46
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Yes-$9.50

  • Counter-Strike: Azuolas vs ENJOY - Map 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    ENJOY
    Won
    ENJOY
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    71%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    69%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$11.36
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No-$9.96
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$3.81

  • Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    9%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No+$12.08
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No+$3.99
    • A
      AiBirdLast traded
      Yes+$3.08

  • Lithuania vs. Andorra: O/U 4.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    16%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over-$69.37
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$33.87
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over-$12.53

  • Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    67%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Google be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Seychelles vs. Sri Lanka end in a draw?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    60%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      GC-PLast traded
      No+$43.91
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$21.39
    • A
      CannaeLast traded
      Yes-$22.35

  • Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    82%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Up+$328.01
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$145.46
    • S
      drfc4eybh7i8Last traded
      Down-$33.77

  • W35 Reims: Marie Weckerle vs Amelie Brooks

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Amelie Brooks
    Won
    Marie Weckerle
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    5%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    75%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Up-$312.16
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$49.42
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$49

  • Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Baidu be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    78%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    67%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Exact Score: Eritrea 2 - 2 South Africa?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    56%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes-$59.15
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No+$26.49
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      No+$20.73

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 30?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    86%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?

    Wrong

    Politics

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?

    Wrong

    Politics

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    67%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Sri Lanka (-1.5)

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Seychelles
    Won
    Sri Lanka
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Phantom Academy - Map 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Leo Team
    Won
    Leo Team
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M15 Baku: Snir Morag vs Raghav Jaisinghani

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Snir Morag
    Won
    Snir Morag
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    46%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      Snir Morag+$1,784.92
    • A
      38791873984189Last traded
      Snir Morag+$148.36
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Raghav Jaisinghani-$10.96

  • Counter-Strike: K27 vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    K27
    Won
    K27
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M15 Ann Arbor, MI: Naoto Tomizawa vs Bjorn Swenson

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Naoto Tomizawa
    Won
    Naoto Tomizawa
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    77%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Mexico leading at halftime?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No+$511.41
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      No+$423.88
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No-$163.51

  • Spread: South Africa (-3.5)

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    South Africa
    Won
    South Africa
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    9%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      South Africa+$1,548.84
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Eritrea-$597.27
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      South Africa+$280.85

  • Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group B

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Nuclear TigeRES
    Won
    Nuclear TigeRES
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      DonkooLast traded
      Nuclear TigeRES+$249.43
    • S
      antecLast traded
      Nuclear TigeRES+$48.56
    • A
      AbsingLast traded
      Nuclear TigeRES+$272.68

  • Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on September 30?

    No consensus

    Crypto

    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Bruins (-1.5)

    Wrong

    Hockey

    Called
    Rangers
    Won
    Bruins
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    43%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Botafogo FC (-1.5)

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    AA Ponte Preta
    Won
    Botafogo FC
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    75%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      AA Ponte Preta-$385.31
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      AA Ponte Preta-$127.73
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      AA Ponte Preta-$6

  • Eritrea vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    24%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Botafogo FC vs. AA Ponte Preta: O/U 1.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    23%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under-$585.17
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under-$57.53
    • A
      LuckyLooLast traded
      Over+$33.61

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    6
    Confidence
    85%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,711 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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