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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
78%
1,910 right535 wrong

All wallets: 91% on the same markets.

Settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,783

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    40%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Deportivo Pereira vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 1.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    29%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will SpaceX be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W75 Quinta do Lago: Matilde Jorge vs Elena Malygina

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Elena Malygina
    Won
    Elena Malygina
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    37%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W15 Nashville, TN: Merna Refaat vs Alice Soulie

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Alice Soulie
    Won
    Merna Refaat
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • CB San Pablo Burgos vs. KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

    Right

    Basketball

    Called
    CB San Pablo Burgos
    Won
    CB San Pablo Burgos
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    71%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      CB San Pablo Burgos+$57.04
    • S
      mishipolisLast traded
      CB San Pablo Burgos+$56.36
    • A
      VD721lsj4938Dk388Last traded
      KK Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana-$86.97

  • Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      molodoyyLast traded
      Yes-$119.95
    • A
      iutwpfalLast traded
      Yes-$73.40
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No-$3.22

  • Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,017,000 and $1,053,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    54%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$29.02
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$70.43
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$21.63

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    56%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    75%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W35 Reims: Tessa Johanna Brockmann vs Demi Tran

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Tessa Johanna Brockmann
    Won
    Tessa Johanna Brockmann
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    5%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W35 Baza: Cadence Brace vs Elza Tomase

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Cadence Brace
    Won
    Cadence Brace
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?

    Right

    PCE

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $76 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    69%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      C03BLast traded
      No+$1.51
    • A
      pennedreadfulLast traded
      Yes-$137.16
    • A
      AliciaLast traded
      No+$38.77

  • Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner

    Wrong

    Esports

    Called
    PRIVATE
    Won
    Nuclear TigeRES
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    47%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      DonkooLast traded
      PRIVATE-$223.12
    • S
      antecLast traded
      PRIVATE-$93.83
    • A
      BookWarriorLast traded
      PRIVATE-$69.94

  • W35 Baza: Malkia Ngounoue vs Alba Maria Coromina Boluda

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Alba Maria Coromina Boluda
    Won
    Alba Maria Coromina Boluda
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    43%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    67%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Seychelles vs. Sri Lanka: O/U 1.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    40%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Under-$85.54
    • B
      emacronLast traded
      Under-$91.32
    • B
      ehmKLast traded
      Over+$62.49

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    39%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    87%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$165.48
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$45.23
    • A
      HcrystallashLast traded
      Up+$63.28

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    56%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W35 Wagga Wagga: Chihiro Muramatsu vs Yuhan Liu

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Yuhan Liu
    Won
    Yuhan Liu
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    65%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Kinetix - Game 2 Winner

    Wrong

    Esports

    Called
    Team Kinetix
    Won
    Ivory
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    6%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W35 Wagga Wagga: Elyse Tse vs Ava Beck

    No consensus

    Tennis

    Won
    Ava Beck
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    0%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Meta have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    9%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$69.85
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$65.81
    • B
      CorlysLast traded
      Yes+$44.81

  • Counter-Strike: EAC Extra vs ENCE Prospects (BO3) - United21 Group A

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    EAC Extra
    Won
    EAC Extra
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      AliciaLast traded
      No+$36.36
    • A
      CoinTrickLast traded
      No+$3.60
    • B
      AvamaxLast traded
      No+$51.33

  • BK Häcken FF leading at halftime?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    87%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      No+$64.33
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$58.55
    • A
      ng6000Last traded
      No+$69.90

  • Botafogo FC vs. AA Ponte Preta: Both Teams to Score

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    47%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Mali (-1.5)

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Liberia
    Won
    Liberia
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    60%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Liberia+$508.02
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Liberia+$74.20
    • S
      ColdMathLast traded
      Liberia+$69.53

  • Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    25%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    78%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M25 Darwin: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jeremy Beale

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Tai Leonard Sach
    Won
    Jeremy Beale
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    25%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Jeremy Beale+$136.80
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Tai Leonard Sach-$97.67
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Jeremy Beale+$191.21

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M25 Darwin: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Jake Delaney

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Jake Delaney
    Won
    Jake Delaney
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    20%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Jake Delaney+$130.19
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Sam Ryan Ziegann-$73.14
    • A
      0xc07Last traded
      Jake Delaney-$2.98

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    86%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5

    No consensus

    Hockey

    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    0%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      NordhavenCapLast traded
      Over-$436.39
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$99.43
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Under+$13.23

  • Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    9%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,220,000 and $1,242,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    71%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Mexico vs. Peru: Draw at halftime?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    53%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$180.07
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes-$177.66
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No+$23.04

  • Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    7
    Confidence
    47%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$164.50
    • S
      ColdMathLast traded
      Under+$76
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Under+$36.53

18,711 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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