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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
78%
1,910 right535 wrong

All wallets: 91% on the same markets.

Settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,783

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • LoL: Estral Esports vs 9z Globant - Game 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Estral Esports
    Won
    Estral Esports
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    50%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      bloodmasterLast traded
      Estral Esports+$191.05
    • A
      gejbrLast traded
      9z Globant+$61.86
    • B
      csgamer11Last traded
      9z Globant-$219.33

  • Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29?

    No consensus

    Weather

    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    71%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5

    Wrong

    Baseball

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    14%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

    No consensus

    Crypto

    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    44%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$124.52
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$16.14
    • A
      HcrystallashLast traded
      Down+$40.29

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    10%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Amazon have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$81.41
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$27.70
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.79

  • Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $462,000 and $470,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Miami be less than $1,017,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    54%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Mali win on 2026-09-29?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    18%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Eastleigh FC vs. Southend United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    24%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$82.43
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over-$34.71
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over-$23.46

  • Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    46%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    73%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    91%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$33.69
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$28.39
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Down+$20.90

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    9%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by September 30?

    Right

    Fed

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 29?

    Wrong

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    46%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • M25 Darwin: Shintaro Imai vs Zane Stevens

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Shintaro Imai
    Won
    Shintaro Imai
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    5%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    47%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    83%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W35 Baza: Juliana Giaccio vs Kateryna Lazarenko

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Juliana Giaccio
    Won
    Juliana Giaccio
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    11%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    10%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: EAC Extra vs ENCE Prospects - Map 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    EAC Extra
    Won
    EAC Extra
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,242,000 and $1,264,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    54%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • United States vs. Chile: O/U 6.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    25%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    86%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Eastleigh FC vs. Southend United FC end in a draw?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    18%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes+$1,142.69
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No-$988.02
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No-$10.40

  • Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    73%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$24.06
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No-$16.25
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No-$14.70

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    18%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W75 Quinta do Lago: Kira Pavlova vs Alicia Dudeney

    No consensus

    Tennis

    Won
    Alicia Dudeney
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    0%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • West Indies Women Tour of Zimbabwe ODIs: Zimbabwe Women vs West Indies Women

    Right

    Cricket

    Called
    West Indies Women
    Won
    West Indies Women
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    88%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    23%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No+$1.32
    • A
      aHjCzLast traded
      Yes-$6.31
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No+$5.08

  • Eastleigh FC vs. Southend United FC: O/U 3.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    4%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over-$240.70
    • S
      ColdMathLast traded
      Under+$158
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Under+$11.59

  • Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs mellren - Map 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    mellren
    Won
    mellren
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      antecLast traded
      mellren-$206.12
    • S
      TommyLeePeecaLast traded
      mellren+$84.82
    • A
      noxmeLast traded
      mellren+$12.27

  • Will Tencent be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    73%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$11.44
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No-$8.46
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$3.98

  • Will ByteDance be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$11.57
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No-$10.16
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$4.65

  • Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    38%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$18.81
    • A
      aHjCzLast traded
      Yes-$6.23
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$4.84

  • Rangers vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5

    Wrong

    Hockey

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    16%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$427.21
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Over-$351.30
    • S
      wapolLast traded
      Under+$240.28

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    63%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    78%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $700 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    8
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,711 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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