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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    47%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    47%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Eritrea vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    31%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$2,406.24
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over+$682.10
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under-$64.30

  • New Zealand Breakers vs. Cairns Taipans

    Wrong

    Basketball

    Called
    Cairns Taipans
    Won
    New Zealand Breakers
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

    Wrong

    Baseball

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Sport Lisboa e Benfica
    Won
    FC Bayern München
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    36%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Sport Lisboa e Benfica-$1,194.99
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Sport Lisboa e Benfica-$422.15
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      FC Bayern München+$44.25

  • Tamworth FC vs. Sutton United FC: O/U 2.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$752.97
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$315.06
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      Under+$287.92

  • Will SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

    Right

    Politics

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    63%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: United States (-1.5)

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    United States
    Won
    United States
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    28%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      United States+$2,724.95
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Chile-$1,458.75
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      United States+$8.64

  • Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    38%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    4%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$8,993.51
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over+$5,078.47
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under-$1,803.61

  • Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    23%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5

    Right

    Hockey

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    36%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • AS Roma vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 6.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    8%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over-$1,082.79
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$354.82
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over-$21.51

  • Spread: FC Barcelona (-3.5)

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    AS Roma
    Won
    FC Barcelona
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    13%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5)

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    OG
    Won
    OG
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    79%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    30%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$198.83
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$26.41
    • S
      qwe258Last traded
      Down+$0.41

  • Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    FC Barcelona
    Won
    FC Barcelona
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    56%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      FC Barcelona-$1,213.38
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      FC Barcelona-$90.02
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      AS Roma-$84.54

  • W35 Reims: Alina Nesmianovych vs Gina Marie Dittmann

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Alina Nesmianovych
    Won
    Alina Nesmianovych
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    28%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs mellren - Map 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Leo Team
    Won
    Leo Team
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    39%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

    No consensus

    AI

    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    53%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • LoL: South Korea vs Chinese Taipei (BO1) - Asian Games Group B

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    South Korea
    Won
    South Korea
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    44%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Independiente Medellín vs. Millonarios FC: O/U 4.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    24%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$338.74
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$336.53
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$75.56

  • Dota 2: Team Yandex vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group C

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Team Yandex
    Won
    Team Yandex
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      Team Yandex+$7.14
    • S
      antecLast traded
      Team Yandex+$2.49
    • A
      yishiwuchengLast traded
      Team Yandex+$136.38

  • Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    100%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      AliciaLast traded
      No+$62.80
    • A
      m3t64 - 815Last traded
      No+$52.56
    • A
      ChimsLast traded
      No+$18.78

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    4%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?

    Wrong

    Housing

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Curitiba: Bruno Fernandez vs Lautaro Midon

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Lautaro Midon
    Won
    Lautaro Midon
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    92%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in September?

    Right

    Stocks

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    47%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Parcl

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    18%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    70%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?

    Right

    Politics

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    43%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    21%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$75.95
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$74.54
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$34.04

  • Map Handicap: LOUD (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5)

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Team Vitality
    Won
    Team Vitality
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    62%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?

    Right

    Economy

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    53%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Exact Score: Seychelles 0 - 3 Sri Lanka?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    42%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    67%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$185.93
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No-$158.14
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      Yes+$21.79

  • Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    44%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs maybe - Map 1 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    maybe
    Won
    maybe
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    31%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    13%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    16%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    60%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Paris FC vs. Arsenal WFC: O/U 3.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    20%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$757.38
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under-$412.82
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under-$326.60

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    85%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    36%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    62%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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