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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down+$99.57
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$65.26
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$45.81

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$75.56
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$12.78
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down+$3.96

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    17%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$405.48
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      Over-$129.06
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over-$112.89

  • Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Philip Henning vs Tristan Schoolkate

    No consensus

    Tennis

    Won
    Tristan Schoolkate
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    0%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Philip Henning-$109.20
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Philip Henning-$70.78
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Philip Henning+$27.09

  • Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,137,000 on September 30?

    Wrong

    Housing

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    5%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in NYC be between $609,000 and $636,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Housing

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will SpaceXAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$78.49
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$26.86
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      No-$26.51

  • Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    37%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    91%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$80.09
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$26.75
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$24.53

  • Counter-Strike: K27 vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group D

    No consensus

    Esports

    Won
    K27
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    0%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    47%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?

    Wrong

    China

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    13%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$47.69
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down-$43.80
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$30.53

  • Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    77%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$62.23
    • A
      korda77Last traded
      No-$32.72
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$25.16

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$93.44
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Down-$46.66
    • S
      drfc4eybh7i8Last traded
      Up+$12.36

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Yangon Galacticos
    Won
    Yangon Galacticos
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    41%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    56%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: Rush vs Grêmio Esports (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Playoffs

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Rush
    Won
    Rush
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    46%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $530,000 and $536,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Housing

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    9%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    63%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$22.29
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down-$15.46
    • S
      asdaefefLast traded
      Down-$8.76

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    55%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    73%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    8%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    82%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    21%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    24%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    29%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by October 15?

    Wrong

    Fed

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    38%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    42%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    19%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      drfc4eybh7i8Last traded
      Up-$35.64
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down-$16.69
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$11.95

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: LAG Gaming vs Marsborne - Map 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Marsborne
    Won
    Marsborne
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    4%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    7%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,169,000 and $1,185,000 on September 30?

    No consensus

    Housing

    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    27%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    41%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$93.02
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$75.95
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$50.20

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$44.53
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$0.96
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Up-$0.27

  • Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5

    Right

    Hockey

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    42%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      justaluckydudeLast traded
      Over+$109.59
    • S
      wapolLast traded
      Under-$67.54
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under-$51.07

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$39.65
    • S
      Dark-CrawdadLast traded
      Down+$32.68
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$28.17

  • Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Housing

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    36%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    44%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$18.64
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$8.34
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$2.60

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    7%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$218.64
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$30.19
    • S
      asdaefefLast traded
      Up-$4.11

  • OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    26%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over-$5,806.48
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over-$2,044.76
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$291.71

  • Canucks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5

    Right

    Hockey

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    91%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    11
    Confidence
    47%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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