Skip to content
Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$39.80
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$38.14
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$26.73

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    62%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up+$83.06
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$71.45
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Up+$2.15

  • Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?

    Right

    Oil

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    36%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W100 Templeton, CA: Reina Goto vs Kate Fakih

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Kate Fakih
    Won
    Kate Fakih
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    50%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 30?

    Right

    SPX

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    58%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Southend United FC win on 2026-09-30?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    71%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: Krytiepacani vs Omega (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group D

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Krytiepacani
    Won
    Krytiepacani
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    58%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Krytiepacani+$4,829.52
    • S
      DonkooLast traded
      Krytiepacani+$848.63
    • A
      dicekingLast traded
      Krytiepacani+$1,124.99

  • M25 Slobozia: Louis Wessels vs Petros Tsitsipas

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Petros Tsitsipas
    Won
    Petros Tsitsipas
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    45%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Paris FC vs. Arsenal WFC end in a draw?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    15%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      spyGoodLuck77Last traded
      Yes+$5,890.06
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes+$5,427.90
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No-$4,468.61

  • Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?

    Wrong

    Politics

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    20%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Dana White's Contender Series: George Staines vs. Loai Abushaar (Lightweight, Main Card)

    Right

    MMA

    Called
    George Staines
    Won
    George Staines
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    70%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      George Staines+$2,414.03
    • S
      curieLast traded
      George Staines-$45.33
    • A
      monkeyfish69Last traded
      George Staines+$69.86

  • Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will French Guiana win on 2026-09-29?

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No-$2,096.14
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      No-$981.96
    • S
      antecLast traded
      Yes+$180.66

  • Mexico vs. Peru: O/U 3.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    76%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      Under+$2,554.18
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over-$787.34
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$528.92

  • Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Houston Astros
    Won
    Houston Astros
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    51%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      justaluckydudeLast traded
      Chicago White Sox-$4,586.07
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Houston Astros+$1,149.49
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Houston Astros+$654.36

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    7%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: megoshort vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    eternal premium
    Won
    eternal premium
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Chicago White Sox
    Won
    Chicago White Sox
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    19%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?

    Wrong

    Housing

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Galions (+2.5)

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Galions
    Won
    Galions
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    92%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      Galions+$111.63
    • S
      qwe258Last traded
      Galions+$0.06
    • A
      ameisgoat11Last traded
      Galions+$191.45

  • OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    61%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$984.07
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under+$320.06
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Under+$253.93

  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?

    Right

    Economy

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • KBO: NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Doosan Bears
    Won
    Doosan Bears
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    53%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    35%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Under-$1,336.10
    • S
      primmLast traded
      Under-$827.37
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over+$663.64

  • Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    7%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    80%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    63%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W75 Quinta do Lago: Ayana Akli vs Polona Hercog

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Polona Hercog
    Won
    Polona Hercog
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    56%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • AS Roma vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under-$706.84
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Under-$59.83
    • S
      Hard-IroncladLast traded
      Over+$43.30

  • Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in August?

    Right

    PCE

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    22%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    30%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

    Wrong

    Politics

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    New York Yankees
    Won
    New York Yankees
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

    No consensus

    Crypto

    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    36%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under-$1,295.39
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$353.83
    • S
      omnibus-076daaLast traded
      Over+$54.82

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      AiBirdLast traded
      No-$232.25
    • A
      molodoyyLast traded
      Yes+$56.13
    • A
      MysariaLast traded
      No+$47.25

  • Mexico vs. Peru: 1st Half O/U 0.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    57%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    80%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • A
      noreasapaLast traded
      No+$463.30
    • A
      CoinTrickLast traded
      No+$9.71
    • A
      aHjCzLast traded
      Yes-$6.62

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    10%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on September 29?

    No consensus

    Weather

    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    54%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$61
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$41.44
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$16.64

  • Porto 2: Luca Potenza vs Inaki Montes

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Inaki Montes
    Won
    Inaki Montes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    50%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026?

    Right

    Geopolitics

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    57%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Mexico vs. Peru: 1st Half O/U 1.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    24%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      spendingmoneyLast traded
      Under+$325.70
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$170.27
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over-$79.22

  • Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on September 29?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$17.57
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down-$15.09
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$3.59

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    13%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    12
    Confidence
    42%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$129.14
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Up+$17.61
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$16.06

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

Pro opens the full roster: 17,587 more positions across 1,922 markets on this day.

Upgrade to Pro · $99/moabout $3.30/day
Developer docs