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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    23%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    24%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$66.33
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$50.30
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$21.91

  • Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    30%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$22.33
    • A
      AiBirdLast traded
      Yes-$116.85
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$64.51

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    48%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$45.94
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$5.96
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down+$0.69

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    36%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

    Wrong

    Baseball

    Called
    Boston Red Sox
    Won
    New York Yankees
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    13%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down+$73.40
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$30.48
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$27.89

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    44%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    46%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down-$89.11
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$32.29
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$10.50

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    48%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$75.53
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down-$5.46
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$4.90

  • Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

    Right

    Business

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Eastleigh FC vs. Southend United FC: O/U 2.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    12%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over-$2,760.12
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over-$1,185.59
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over+$843.41

  • Panthers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5

    Wrong

    Hockey

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    24%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      HomeRunHazardLast traded
      Over-$1,672.55
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Under+$238.11
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under+$219.66

  • Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,153,000 and $1,169,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Housing

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

    Wrong

    Politics

    Called
    No
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Eritrea vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    42%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$1,067.11
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Over+$687.39
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Under-$213.85

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Mexico vs. Peru: O/U 1.5

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    39%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Over+$1,217.52
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Over+$1,034.40
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      Under-$947.46

  • Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    73%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    86%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$123.11
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$105.27
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$72.97

  • Sydney Kings vs. Brisbane Bullets

    Right

    Basketball

    Called
    Sydney Kings
    Won
    Sydney Kings
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    39%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: MEIA NOITE vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Group Stage

    Wrong

    Esports

    Called
    MEIA NOITE
    Won
    ALKA
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    10%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    39%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$72.50
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Down-$46.26
    • A
      HcrystallashLast traded
      Down-$196.61

  • Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    18%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Up+$129.54
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$108.84
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down-$33.02

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    63%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Down+$65.18
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$57.55
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$23.73

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    4%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W100 Templeton, CA: Ella McDonald vs Arina Bulatova

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Ella McDonald
    Won
    Ella McDonald
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    7%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 and $335,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    25%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    20%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$24.88
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$14.35
    • S
      gabigolLast traded
      Up-$5.63

  • Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 184.5

    Wrong

    WNBA

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    10%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    91%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty: O/U 173.5

    Right

    WNBA

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    33%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will AS Roma vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    64%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$220.61
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Yes-$85.62
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$57.18

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,153,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Housing

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    14%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    88%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    47%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Recurring

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    56%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Esport BERG (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #10 Group Stage

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    ex-RUSTEC
    Won
    ex-RUSTEC
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    53%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026?

    Right

    Politics

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    43%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    78%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$32.84
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$25.74
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$6.81

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W35 Wagga Wagga: Riko Kikawada vs Yuka Hosoki

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Riko Kikawada
    Won
    Riko Kikawada
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    38%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be at least $345,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Parcl

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    13
    Confidence
    58%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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