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Resolution reportWednesday, September 30, 2026UTC

Which side profitable wallets held on the markets that settled

Every market here has settled. See which calls profitable wallets got right, which they got wrong, and where they split.

Profitable wallets backed the winner
80%
1,932 right490 wrong

All wallets: 92% on the same markets.

No settlement updates pending.

Markets resolved
21,228
No consensus
18,806

How a resolution report is scored

A resolution report scores profitable wallets' positions after markets settle. The daily report for the same date shows the trades before the outcome was known. The leaderboard ranks the traders who get it right on settled P&L.

A wallet's side is the outcome it bought more shares of. All wallets is the same count over every wallet that put $50 or more into the market, one vote each.

Report dates use UTC. Markets are dated by Polymarket's closure time when available, or when 0xinsider first observed the resolution. Provider closure time does not establish chain finalization.

All report markets: 18,960 provider closure; 2,268 first observed.

Grades: the grade each wallet held when its market settled.

Markets: every Polymarket market. Reports from 21 October 2026 cover sports and esports only.

Markets with profitable wallets' positions

Every market result with the trader positions on it.

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    15
    Confidence
    42%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    15
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Up-$76.03
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$15.54
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$15.28

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    15
    Confidence
    64%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    15
    Confidence
    6%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    15
    Confidence
    24%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    15
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Up-$25.50
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down-$8.81
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up+$3.02

  • LoL: HMBLE vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Barça eSports
    Won
    Barça eSports
    Profitable wallets
    15
    Confidence
    15%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    15
    Confidence
    16%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$53.39
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down+$23.76
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$17.61

  • Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs DN SOOPers Challengers (+2.5)

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Solary
    Won
    Solary
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    8%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Over
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    49%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Team Nemesis
    Won
    Team Nemesis
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    61%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$883.68
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$923.35
    • A
      HourglassLast traded
      Yes-$605.48

  • Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    50%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$883.41
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$922.78
    • A
      HourglassLast traded
      Yes-$605.44

  • Will Sutton United FC win on 2026-09-30?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    90%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No+$1,093.91
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      No+$626.42
    • S
      NM-PLast traded
      No+$309.98

  • Will Independiente Medellín vs. Millonarios FC end in a draw?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    61%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • W100 Templeton, CA: Madison Brengle vs Mimi Xu

    Right

    Tennis

    Called
    Madison Brengle
    Won
    Madison Brengle
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    64%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      HVABLast traded
      Madison Brengle+$4,199.46
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      Mimi Xu-$1,955.45
    • S
      ferrariChampions2026Last traded
      Madison Brengle+$657.16

  • AS Roma vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 5.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    12%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under-$1,188.85
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Under-$1,012.51
    • S
      SnakeBallLast traded
      Over+$747.27

  • Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    No consensus

    AI

    Won
    Yes
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    0%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    17%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$91.98
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$70.91
    • S
      qwe258Last traded
      Down+$3.80

  • Panthers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5

    Right

    Hockey

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    11%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • AS Roma vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5

    Wrong

    Soccer

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Over
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    10%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Under-$581.43
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      Under-$480.93
    • S
      gollazaLast traded
      Over+$161.05

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    81%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    52%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Jingshan: Evan Zhu vs Hanyi Liu

    Wrong

    Tennis

    Called
    Hanyi Liu
    Won
    Evan Zhu
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    3%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Up
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    36%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    6%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    40%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    3%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Down+$588.27
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$279.19
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Up-$159.82

  • Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in September?

    Right

    Finance

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    80%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET

    Wrong

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Up
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    22%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      curieLast traded
      Up+$2,161.77
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$481.25
    • S
      Agile-SpacingLast traded
      Down-$85.18

  • Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    39%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-09-29?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    88%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4AM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    100%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    26%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $512,000 and $518,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Housing

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    11%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will BK Häcken FF win on 2026-09-30?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    68%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No+$933.09
    • S
      UpTheBluesLast traded
      Yes-$552.90
    • S
      RN1Last traded
      No-$185.79

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    53%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$168.54
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Down+$72.20
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down-$35.63

  • Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $470,000 and $478,000 on September 30?

    Right

    Parcl

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    55%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    29%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    33%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    18%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$87.20
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down-$49.83
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up+$10.93

  • Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5

    Right

    Baseball

    Called
    Under
    Won
    Under
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    45%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Lithuania vs. Andorra end in a draw?

    Right

    Soccer

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    54%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      NM-PLast traded
      Yes-$112.03
    • S
      FlaznorpLast traded
      No-$81.59
    • S
      VeryLucky888Last traded
      No+$49.19

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    37%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?

    Right

    AI

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    42%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      e46m3Last traded
      No-$53.40
    • A
      merodLast traded
      No-$16.12
    • A
      donthackmeLast traded
      Yes-$12.52

  • LoL: Estral Esports vs 9z Globant - Game 2 Winner

    Right

    Esports

    Called
    Estral Esports
    Won
    Estral Esports
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    21%

    First observed:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      bloodmasterLast traded
      Estral Esports+$191.05
    • S
      johnbasterLast traded
      9z Globant-$112.13
    • S
      antecLast traded
      Estral Esports-$31.16

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    61%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?

    Wrong

    AI

    Called
    Yes
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    10%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 30?

    Right

    Weather

    Called
    No
    Won
    No
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    87%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

    Right

    Crypto

    Called
    Down
    Won
    Down
    Profitable wallets
    14
    Confidence
    39%

    Provider closure:

    Profitable wallets' positions
    • S
      BonereaperLast traded
      Down+$34.25
    • S
      mo-moneyLast traded
      Down+$34.13
    • S
      std0Last traded
      Up-$10.40

18,735 other markets resolved with no profitable wallets' positions

Showing the first 3 wallets on each market.

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