00gringo00 made its first trade on September 8 at 4:47pm UTC. By the time Roma kicked off at Torino on the 14th it had put $9.6 million through 81 fills, and every one of them was the same trade: a big soccer favorite, on the day it played. Dortmund, Arsenal, Sevilla, Liverpool, Brighton, then Roma.
Of the 6, only Liverpool failed to win. Polymarket's own profit figure for the wallet stood at $2.49 million before the Roma game.
The Roma fill was $896,919 across 5 buys in 15 minutes, 2:39pm to 2:54pm UTC: 1,363,355 shares at an average of 65.8 cents. That market had traded $1.8 million in total, so one buyer was close to half of it, and the price barely moved: 66 cents going in, 64 cents an hour later. A sportsbook would move its line or refuse an order that size. Polymarket's order book absorbed it.
Torino 0, Roma 2. The shares paid $1,363,355. Profit $466,436.
Three hours later, the Chiefs
At 9:02pm UTC the same wallet bought the Chiefs: 7 fills in 6 minutes, 4,133,738 shares at an average of 55.4 cents, $2,291,636 in total. It was the wallet's seventh market, and the first that was not a soccer favorite.
On the other side sat Substantial-Service: grade S on 9,297 settled markets, #116 on our leaderboard, and $7.76 million realized since October. It had bought $325,526 of the Broncos at 44 cents that morning, 18 hours before kickoff, and another $89,819 of Broncos +2.5.
So the game put a wallet on a 5-for-6 week against a wallet with more settled markets than almost anyone on Polymarket.
What the grade says, and what it cannot
We grade 00gringo00 C. That grade rests on 6 settled markets, which is a streak, not a record, and the grade is built to say so: thin histories are held back from the S, A, and B board on purpose. Substantial-Service's S rests on 9,297.
What I cannot tell you is whether $2.29 million in 6 minutes is conviction or a bankroll that just doubled. From the outside they look identical. The trade history is public either way.
00gringo00 on 0xinsider · Substantial-Service on 0xinsider · Broncos v Chiefs on Polymarket
Chiefs 31, Broncos 10. 00gringo00's 4,133,738 Chiefs shares paid $4,133,738 on $2,291,636. Profit $1,842,102, and 6 of 7 markets won in 7 days. Substantial-Service's $325,526 of Broncos at 44 cents paid nothing, and neither did its $89,819 of Broncos +2.5.
The grade is still C, now on 7 settled markets, and 7 is still a streak. The S on the other side still rests on 9,297, and it lost this one. That is what a base rate looks like on a single night.
Fills and positions from Polymarket's trades and positions APIs, read on September 14. Grades from 0xinsider. Prices move. Not financial advice.
