The Knicks are up 2-0 on the Spurs, and a win tonight makes it 3-0, a hole no team has ever come back from in the Finals. The market is not that sure. Game 3 sits at Knicks 53.5 cents, Spurs 46.5 cents on $9.8 million of volume. So I sorted who holds each side.
The most profitable accounts are on the Knicks
The 2 most profitable accounts in the market both sit on New York. surfandturf is up $4.45 million all-time. Countryside is up $4.34 million and holds the biggest position in the book at 1.55 million shares. When the sharpest money agrees with the favorite, that is usually the end of the story.
Not all the money on New York is sharp, though. bossoskil1 and mooseborzoi, 2 of the next biggest Knicks holders, are down $3.77 million and $2.53 million for their careers. The favorite is carrying some of the most profitable money in the market and some of the least profitable at the same time.
San Antonio's side is quiet
Of the 5 biggest Spurs holders, 3 are lifetime losers and 2 are in profit. The sharpest Spurs backer, Soarin22 at plus $1.52 million, is in for $42,000, a small position for an account that size. Size and track record both point to New York. The Spurs case is Wembanyama and a desperate 62-win team at a coin-flip price, not the order flow.
The props lean the same way. Brunson over 25.5 points is the firmest read on the board at 56.5 cents. The market pins Wembanyama right at 27, where he has lived all series, and the game total leans under 216.5, the way both prior games finished.
Market data from Polymarket via 0xinsider, from the June 8 pre-tip read. Prices move. Not financial advice.
