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Sortino ratio

The Sortino ratio is the Sharpe ratio counting only downside volatility. Upside swings do not count as risk, which fits prediction markets, where a correct call pays in one jump. A high Sortino means strong returns without deep losses. On 0xinsider profiles the Sortino ratio appears as a downside-risk percentile once a wallet has 50 resolved markets, and it is one input to the grade's tie-breaker.

Formula

Sortino = (mean return - target return) / downside deviation

Downside deviation uses only the periods that finished below the target, so upside moves never enter the denominator.

The one difference from Sharpe

Sharpe divides by all volatility. Sortino divides by downside volatility only. Everything else is the same calculation, so the two numbers move together until a trader has a lopsided return profile, and then they separate.

When Sortino sits far above Sharpe, the trader's swings are mostly upward. That is the signature of someone taking positions that lose a little often and win a lot occasionally.

Why Sortino fits binary contracts

Binary contracts produce exactly the lopsided profile Sortino was built for. A resolved market returns either the full payout or nothing, so a trader with a real edge on underpriced outcomes shows large positive deviations. Sharpe treats those as risk; Sortino does not.

The trap runs the other way too. A trader who sells expensive favorites collects small consistent premiums and shows a high Sortino right up until one favorite loses. Downside deviation is only informative once the sample contains real losses, so check the resolved-market count before trusting it.

Where 0xinsider uses the Sortino ratio

Trader profiles show Sortino as a downside-risk percentile against other graded wallets when the metric is available. The raw ratio is in the Pro data export. Read it alongside drawdown and profit to understand downside variability.

Worked example

A trader's returns: +$800, +$1,200, −$200, +$600, −$100. Only the two losses, $200 and $100, enter the downside deviation, so the large wins do not count as risk.

Sortino = mean return / downside dev = $460 / $100
= 4.6 (only the losses count as risk)

Sortino ratio on 0xinsider

Trader analytics

Rolling Sharpe and a downside-risk percentile per trader, so you see the shape of the returns as well as their size.

Live feed

Sortino ratio on live data

The leaderboard ranks S, A, and B wallets, graded mostly on realized profit. The live feed lists large Polymarket trades as they fill on Pro, and 24 hours later without it.

Picks and market activity

Read the published picks or follow large trades. The free feed runs 24 hours behind; Pro has no delay.