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@skenvern

Expert in

First trade Jan 14, 20260x0238…83aaView on PolymarketUpdated 61d ago · Sign up for real-time →

Each signal is a cohort percentile (higher beats more graded traders), de-noised for sample size. The SKILL grade is the weighted blend.

Realized P&L: 79th pct
Win Rate: 34th pct
Max Drawdown: 70th pct
Consistency: 44th pct
Track Record: 6th pct

Volume traded

$37,602.17

Predictions

Rank

—

Win rate

66.7%

Fees charged: $2.55
Fee refunds: $0.01
Fees paid: $2.53
Maker rebates: $0
Taker rebates: $0
Net realized P&L: $452.75

All-time. Fees paid are after refunds and already included in P&L. Credited maker and taker rebates are added to P&L. Grades and tiers use net realized P&L. Observed 2026-08-31 02:00:00 UTC.

Net trading P&L

All-Time

8 total

Market				To win
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes	10.3¢30.0¢	390	$40.22$117	$390	+$76.78Timeline
Arc FDV above $7B one day after launch? Yes	0.4¢24.9¢	31	$0.12$7.62	$30.60	+$7.50Timeline
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? NoClosed	5.1¢0.0¢	337,638	$17,219.54$0	—	+$578.75Timeline
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? No positionClosed	15.0¢—	551	$82.68—	—	+$5.79Timeline
Nebula3 FDV above $50M one day after launch? YesClosed	0.2¢0.0¢	13,545	$27.09$0	—	+$0.03Timeline
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? YesClosed	24.0¢16.5¢	1,744	$418.54$0	—	-$29.30Timeline
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? No positionClosed	23.0¢—	3,734	$860.52—	—	-$198.31Timeline
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? No positionClosed	1.9¢—	25,181	$476.05—	—	+$95.79Timeline