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@notblackrock

Expert in

First trade Jan 30, 20260x746e…fcd1View on PolymarketUpdated 48d ago · Sign up for real-time →

Each signal is a cohort percentile (higher beats more graded traders), de-noised for sample size. The SKILL grade is the weighted blend.

Realized P&L: 44th pct
Edge: 11th pct
Win Rate: 49th pct
Consistency: 54th pct
Downside Risk: 48th pct
Track Record: 84th pct

Volume traded

$106,619.76

Predictions

527

Rank

—

Win rate

42.9%

Fees charged: $1,152.92
Fee refunds: $1,005.10
Fees paid: $147.82
Maker rebates: $0.03
Taker rebates: $0
Net realized P&L: -$166.27

All-time. Fees paid are after refunds and already included in P&L. Credited maker and taker rebates are added to P&L. Grades and tiers use net realized P&L. Observed 2026-08-31 02:00:00 UTC.

Net trading P&L

All-Time

527 total

Market				To win
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election No positionClosed	82.0¢—	6	$4.88—	—	-$0.10Timeline
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No positionClosed	85.0¢—	4	$3.53—	—	-$0.04Timeline
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? No positionClosed	0.6¢—	27,778	$166.67—	—	-$0.17Timeline
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? No positionClosed	94.0¢—	1	$1.06—	—	-$0.02Timeline
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? No positionClosed	66.0¢—	2	$1.52—	—	-$0.03Timeline
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No positionClosed	65.0¢—	2	$1.54—	—	-$0.02Timeline
US strike on Cuba by March 31? No positionClosed	5.5¢—	335	$18.30—	—	-$0.05Timeline
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? No positionClosed	93.9¢—	66	$62.40—	—	-$0.13Timeline
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No positionClosed	21.8¢—	21	$4.59—	—	-$0.00Timeline
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? No positionClosed	90.0¢—	2	$2.22—	—	-$0.03Timeline