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@hardfish

Expert in

First trade Mar 31, 20260x631f…f062View on PolymarketUpdated 10d ago · Sign up for real-time →

Each signal is a cohort percentile (higher beats more graded traders), de-noised for sample size. The SKILL grade is the weighted blend.

Realized P&L: 15th pct
Edge: 41st pct
Win Rate: 9th pct
Max Drawdown: 31st pct
Consistency: 53rd pct
Track Record: 15th pct

Volume traded

$57,755.70

Predictions

Rank

—

Win rate

27.3%

Fees charged: $4.44
Fee refunds: $2.70
Fees paid: $1.74
Maker rebates: $1.35
Taker rebates: $0
Net realized P&L: -$4,181.19

All-time. Fees paid are after refunds and already included in P&L. Credited maker and taker rebates are added to P&L. Grades and tiers use net realized P&L. Observed 2026-08-30 20:00:00 UTC.

Net trading P&L

All-Time

12 total

Market				To win
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? Yes	0.7¢1.2¢	2,242	$14.80$26.91	$2,242.18	+$12.11Timeline
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No positionClosed	86.0¢—	116	$100—	—	+$12.90Timeline
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? No positionClosed	65.4¢—	2,254	$1,473.42—	—	+$165.57Timeline
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No positionClosed	10.5¢—	1,001	$105—	—	-$99.99Timeline
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No positionClosed	48.1¢—	8,501	$4,084.95—	—	-$3,964.95Timeline
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No positionClosed	24.0¢—	12,500	$3,000—	—	-$30.00Timeline
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? No positionClosed	8.2¢—	32,217	$2,628.89—	—	-$119.35Timeline
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? No positionClosed	5.4¢—	9,259	$499.98—	—	-$14.51Timeline
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No positionClosed	28.0¢—	357	$100—	—	-$100.00Timeline
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? No positionClosed	1.6¢—	8,102	$130.44—	—	-$130.44Timeline

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pUSD · Polygon · 7 days

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pUSD · Polygon · 7 days

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@hardfish

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@hardfish

Why this trader grades F

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