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@ghostofvida

Expert in

First trade Sep 7, 20250xfabf…c681View on PolymarketUpdated 39d ago · Sign up for real-time →

Each signal is a cohort percentile (higher beats more graded traders), de-noised for sample size. The SKILL grade is the weighted blend.

Realized P&L: 10th pct
Edge: 47th pct
Win Rate: 82nd pct
Max Drawdown: 31st pct
Consistency: 24th pct
Downside Risk: 33rd pct
Track Record: 70th pct

Volume traded

$154,593.98

Predictions

170

Rank

—

Win rate

68.6%

Fees charged: $30.07
Fee refunds: $15.63
Fees paid: $14.44
Maker rebates: $5.42
Taker rebates: $0
Net realized P&L: -$8,127.45

All-time. Fees paid are after refunds and already included in P&L. Credited maker and taker rebates are added to P&L. Grades and tiers use net realized P&L. Observed 2026-08-30 01:00:00 UTC.

Net trading P&L

All-Time

169 total

Market				To win
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET No positionClosed	38.8¢—	1,649	$639.93—	—	-$184.37Timeline
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? No positionClosed	40.0¢—	1,250	$500—	—	-$130.90Timeline
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? No positionClosed	22.1¢—	1,828	$403.84—	—	+$92.52Timeline
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? No positionClosed	47.0¢—	213	$100—	—	+$38.00Timeline
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? No positionClosed	74.0¢—	919	$680—	—	+$47.60Timeline
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? No positionClosed	89.1¢—	18	$16—	—	+$1.74Timeline
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? No positionClosed	88.0¢—	1,375	$1,210—	—	-$96.80Timeline
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? No positionClosed	67.0¢—	448	$299.99—	—	-$201.00Timeline
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? No positionClosed	58.9¢—	306	$180—	—	+$73.46Timeline
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? No positionClosed	57.3¢—	471	$270—	—	+$113.14Timeline