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@earnold

Expert in

First trade Nov 30, 20240xfffb…c5cdView on PolymarketUpdated 52d ago · Sign up for real-time →

Each signal is a cohort percentile (higher beats more graded traders), de-noised for sample size. The SKILL grade is the weighted blend.

Realized P&L: 70th pct
Edge: 55th pct
Win Rate: 94th pct
Max Drawdown: 94th pct
Consistency: 12th pct
Downside Risk: 96th pct
Track Record: 48th pct

Volume traded

$7,157.32

Predictions

Rank

—

Win rate

90.6%

Fees charged: $0.07
Fee refunds: $0.01
Fees paid: $0.06
Maker rebates: $0
Taker rebates: $0
Net realized P&L: $41.69

All-time. Fees paid are after refunds and already included in P&L. Credited maker and taker rebates are added to P&L. Grades and tiers use net realized P&L. Observed 2026-09-01 04:22:37 UTC.

Net trading P&L

All-Time

53 total

Market				To win
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No positionClosed	99.8¢—	38	$38.29—	—	+$0.08Timeline
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? No positionClosed	99.0¢—	39	$38.25—	—	+$0.38Timeline
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? No positionClosed	99.1¢—	40	$39.89—	—	+$0.36Timeline
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 30-April 5? No positionClosed	99.9¢—	40	$39.53—	—	+$0.04Timeline
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? No positionClosed	99.5¢—	40	$39.49—	—	+$0.20Timeline
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? No positionClosed	99.5¢—	199	$197.69—	—	+$0.28Timeline
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? No positionClosed	98.9¢—	39	$39.02—	—	+$0.43Timeline
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? No positionClosed	99.3¢—	78	$77.56—	—	+$0.12Timeline
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? No positionClosed	99.6¢—	116	$116.01—	—	+$0.15Timeline
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? YesClosed	98.9¢$1.00	39	$38.32$0	—	+$0.42Timeline