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@amazingfrog

Expert in

First trade Jan 9, 20260x5927…672bView on PolymarketUpdated 18d ago · Sign up for real-time →

Each signal is a cohort percentile (higher beats more graded traders), de-noised for sample size. The SKILL grade is the weighted blend.

Realized P&L: 83rd pct
Edge: 65th pct
Win Rate: 81st pct
Max Drawdown: 78th pct
Consistency: 95th pct
Downside Risk: 91st pct
Track Record: 82nd pct

Volume traded

$57,990.54

Predictions

458

Rank

—

Win rate

65.2%

Fees charged: $0
Fee refunds: $0
Fees paid: $0
Maker rebates: $0
Taker rebates: $0
Net realized P&L: $1,123.44

All-time. Fees paid are after refunds and already included in P&L. Credited maker and taker rebates are added to P&L. Grades and tiers use net realized P&L. Observed 2026-08-31 02:00:00 UTC.

Net trading P&L

All-Time

458 total

Market				To win
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No	42.5¢—	53	$22.52$25.31	$53	+$2.79Timeline
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	16.9¢43.1¢	32	$5.42$13.81	$32.07	+$8.39Timeline
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No	76.0¢—	47	$35.72$23.27	$47	-$12.46Timeline
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes	75.0¢49.5¢	92	$69$45.54	$92	-$23.46Timeline
Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes	34.5¢0.9¢	32	$11.04$0.27	$32	-$10.77Timeline
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? No	92.0¢—	29	$26.68$28	$29	+$1.32Timeline
Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? No	93.0¢—	36	$33.48$34.72	$36	+$1.24Timeline
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes	4.8¢0.2¢	32	$1.54$0.06	$32.08	-$1.48Timeline
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026? No	94.0¢—	19	$17.86$18.60	$19	+$0.74Timeline
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? No	5.0¢—	109	$5.45$3.54	$109	-$1.91Timeline