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@HolydayChristmas

Expert in

First trade Sep 26, 20240x8232…5992View on PolymarketUpdated 58d ago · Sign up for real-time →

Each signal is a cohort percentile (higher beats more graded traders), de-noised for sample size. The SKILL grade is the weighted blend.

Realized P&L: 19th pct
Edge: 37th pct
Win Rate: 63rd pct
Max Drawdown: 31st pct
Consistency: 91st pct
Track Record: 44th pct

Volume traded

$112,338.36

Predictions

Rank

—

Win rate

61.4%

Fees charged: $157.62
Fee refunds: $43.17
Fees paid: $114.46
Maker rebates: $0
Taker rebates: $0
Net realized P&L: -$2,702.68

All-time. Fees paid are after refunds and already included in P&L. Credited maker and taker rebates are added to P&L. Grades and tiers use net realized P&L. Observed 2026-08-31 01:00:00 UTC.

Net trading P&L

All-Time

46 total

Market				To win
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No	93.0¢—	323	$300$312.10	$322.58	+$12.10Timeline
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No	72.0¢—	69	$50$55.66	$69.44	+$5.66Timeline
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 No positionClosed	62.0¢—	12,854	$7,969.19—	—	+$3,028.30Timeline
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs No positionClosed	69.0¢—	10,488	$7,236.61—	—	-$4,993.25Timeline
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? No positionClosed	88.9¢—	253	$224.97—	—	+$16.58Timeline
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? NoClosed	63.3¢0.0¢	18,733	$11,853.26$0	—	+$447.47Timeline
US forces enter Iran by March 14? YesClosed	23.5¢0.0¢	29,787	$6,999.95$0.01	—	+$126.84Timeline
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? NoClosed	17.5¢0.0¢	5,733	$4,700.68$0.01	—	-$59.42Timeline
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET No positionClosed	81.3¢—	1,212	$984.54—	—	-$800.00Timeline
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET No positionClosed	75.5¢—	526	$397.26—	—	+$97.26Timeline