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@HardOrHome

Expert in

First trade Jan 15, 20260x1acd…c664View on PolymarketUpdated 62d ago · Sign up for real-time →

Each signal is a cohort percentile (higher beats more graded traders), de-noised for sample size. The SKILL grade is the weighted blend.

Realized P&L: 80th pct
Edge: 78th pct
Win Rate: 26th pct
Max Drawdown: 77th pct
Consistency: 65th pct
Downside Risk: 75th pct
Track Record: 65th pct

Volume traded

$187,818.20

Predictions

134

Rank

—

Win rate

32.0%

Fees charged: $315.59
Fee refunds: $278.47
Fees paid: $37.12
Maker rebates: $1.61
Taker rebates: $0
Net realized P&L: $704.79

All-time. Fees paid are after refunds and already included in P&L. Credited maker and taker rebates are added to P&L. Grades and tiers use net realized P&L. Observed 2026-08-31 02:00:00 UTC.

Net trading P&L

All-Time

134 total

Market				To win
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? Yes	48.0¢17.0¢	139	$66.53$23.56	$138.59	-$42.96Timeline
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes	10.0¢3.3¢	100	$10$3.30	$100	-$6.70Timeline
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes	5.7¢2.1¢	600	$34.20$12.30	$599.99	-$21.90Timeline
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes	10.0¢6.7¢	200	$20$13.40	$200	-$6.60Timeline
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes	16.0¢7.5¢	200	$32$15	$200	-$17.00Timeline
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes	9.0¢7.5¢	30	$2.70$2.25	$30	-$0.45Timeline
Spread: Norway (-2.5) No positionClosed	2.7¢—	372	$10—	—	-$10.00Timeline
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No positionClosed	2.7¢—	2,004	$54.10—	—	-$4.88Timeline
Spread: Norway (-2.5) No positionClosed	0.5¢—	42,766	$213.83—	—	-$1.07Timeline
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No positionClosed	2.0¢—	30,000	$600—	—	+$2.40Timeline