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@Caleb1999

Expert in

First trade May 27, 20240x5f3b…aaa6View on PolymarketUpdated 6d ago · Sign up for real-time →

Each signal is a cohort percentile (higher beats more graded traders), de-noised for sample size. The SKILL grade is the weighted blend.

Realized P&L: 17th pct
Edge: 78th pct
Win Rate: 70th pct
Consistency: 22nd pct
Downside Risk: 42nd pct
Track Record: 53rd pct

Volume traded

$130,569.81

Predictions

Rank

—

Win rate

63.1%

Fees charged: $15.75
Fee refunds: $13.65
Fees paid: $2.10
Maker rebates: $0
Taker rebates: $0
Net realized P&L: -$3,390.33

All-time. Fees paid are after refunds and already included in P&L. Credited maker and taker rebates are added to P&L. Grades and tiers use net realized P&L. Observed 2026-08-31 00:00:00 UTC.

Net trading P&L

All-Time

68 total

Market				To win
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No positionClosed	91.0¢—	7	$6—	—	+$0.12Timeline
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No positionClosed	81.0¢—	7	$6—	—	+$0.42Timeline
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No positionClosed	92.4¢—	249	$230—	—	+$17.55Timeline
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No positionClosed	91.3¢—	7	$6—	—	+$0.16Timeline
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No positionClosed	92.9¢—	6	$6—	—	+$0.03Timeline
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No positionClosed	96.9¢—	5	$5—	—	+$0.04Timeline
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No positionClosed	96.4¢—	6	$6—	—	+$0.05Timeline
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No positionClosed	3.7¢—	3,164	$118—	—	-$0.30Timeline
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? No positionClosed	92.4¢—	5	$5—	—	+$0.38Timeline
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No positionClosed	94.0¢—	5	$4.99—	—	+$0.30Timeline