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@1a1

Expert in

First trade Mar 18, 20250xa6df…baa2View on PolymarketUpdated 25d ago · Sign up for real-time →

Each signal is a cohort percentile (higher beats more graded traders), de-noised for sample size. The SKILL grade is the weighted blend.

Realized P&L: 10th pct
Edge: 34th pct
Win Rate: 78th pct
Consistency: 6th pct
Downside Risk: 26th pct
Track Record: 91st pct

Volume traded

$184,243.24

Predictions

1,211

Rank

—

Win rate

59.8%

Fees charged: $26.62
Fee refunds: $9.59
Fees paid: $17.04
Maker rebates: $0
Taker rebates: $0
Net realized P&L: -$8,003.10

All-time. Fees paid are after refunds and already included in P&L. Credited maker and taker rebates are added to P&L. Grades and tiers use net realized P&L. Observed 2026-08-31 01:00:00 UTC.

Net trading P&L

All-Time

1,210 total

Market				To win
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No	90.5¢—	66	$60$64.02	$66.31	+$4.02Timeline
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes	59.0¢16.5¢	169	$100$27.97	$169.49	-$72.03Timeline
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No	87.0¢—	11	$10$11.41	$11.49	+$1.41Timeline
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes	10.0¢4.8¢	100	$10$4.75	$100	-$5.25Timeline
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	55.0¢26.5¢	18	$10$4.82	$18.18	-$5.18Timeline
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes	40.0¢5.5¢	20	$8$1.10	$20	-$6.90Timeline
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes	15.0¢6.5¢	7	$1$0.43	$6.67	-$0.57Timeline
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	53.0¢62.5¢	25	$13$15.33	$24.53	+$2.33Timeline
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes	16.7¢33.5¢	60	$10$20.09	$60.05	+$10.09Timeline
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes	55.0¢47.4¢	36	$20$17.22	$36.36	-$2.78Timeline