Pick of the Day stats
The Pick of the Day historical record, recent form, drawdowns, profit concentration, and public ledger proof coverage, before fees.
Return before fees of a flat $1,000 stake on every valued settled pick, in publication order.
| Window | Record | Win rate | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 picks | 14W - 6L | 70.0% | +3.60u | +18.0% |
| Last 50 picks | 29W - 21L | 58.0% | +0.39u | +0.8% |
| Tier | Units | ROI | Profit | Record | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free104 picks | +8.45u | +8.1% | +$8,449 | 70W34L | 67.3% |
Expected wins add up the market probabilities frozen when each pick was published. Units show the return on one unit per pick at those prices, before fees and slippage.
| Window | Priced picks | Wins | Expected wins | Units | Wins z | Units z |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All time2026-06-23 to 2026-10-08 | 407 | 262 | 248.6 | +23.11u | -- | -- |
| Last 30 days2026-09-09 to 2026-10-08 | 228 | 145 | 136.7 | +16.65u | -- | -- |
Wins divided by wins plus losses after each result. The dashed line marks 50%.
Result before fees of the day's valued settled picks at a flat $1,000 per pick.
Flat-$1,000 profit per category over its valued settled picks, before fees.
Flat-$1,000 return before fees over each entry price band's total stake. A band with few picks reads on the same scale as a busy one.
Settled win rate by the backed side's entry price band, from longshots to heavy favorites.
| Entry price | Units |
|---|
| Group | Bucket | Measured | Mean move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier | Free | 102 | -0.2 pp |
| Tier | Pro | 203 | -0.1 pp |
| Tier | Max |
| +7.64u |
| +3.7% |
| +$7,637 |
| 134W72L |
| 65.0% |
| Max100 picks | +7.03u | +7.2% | +$7,026 | 58W39L | 59.8% |
|---|
| Last 14 days2026-09-25 to 2026-10-08 |
|---|
| 137 |
| 79 |
| 79.8 |
| +1.89u |
| -- |
| -- |
| Last 7 days2026-10-02 to 2026-10-08 | 80 | 41 | 46.5 | -8.41u | -- | -- |
|---|
Through 2026-10-08, with days counted in America/New_York. Each window includes its last day. The comparison leaves out pending, void, and unpriced results.
A z-score measures distance from the market expectation in standard deviations, assuming independent outcomes and positive variance. Positive is above expectation; negative is below. Same-game picks share exposure and need not be independent, so z-scores are unavailable when a window contains multiple priced, decided picks from one game. Expected wins and units still use the eligible recorded picks. These overlapping windows describe the record and do not prove a trading edge.
Some comparisons are unavailable because of shared exposure or numerical limits.
Settled outcomes per day, US Eastern time. Pending picks show in the tooltip only.
Monthly profit before fees at a flat $1,000 per valued settled pick, with each month's win rate below it.
Profit before fees
Win rate
Win rate on settled picks per category. Each label carries the settled-pick count.
How the published picks split across categories: every category, largest first.
| Category | Units | ROI | Profit | Record | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB74 picks | +12.87u | +17.4% | +$12,872 | 46W28L | 62.2% |
| UEFA Nations League47 picks | +2.31u | +4.9% | +$2,314 | 29W18L | 61.7% |
| CS234 picks | +0.85u | +2.5% | +$849 | 22W12L | 64.7% |
| ATP33 picks | +1.12u | +3.4% | +$1,121 | 21W12L | 63.6% |
| Premier League23 picks | -3.04u | -13.2% | -$3,038 | 14W9L | 60.9% |
| LaLiga22 picks | +2.46u | +11.2% | +$2,458 | 17W5L | 77.3% |
| NFL22 picks | -2.24u | -10.2% | -$2,242 | 12W10L | 54.5% |
| FIFA World Cup18 picks | +5.82u | +32.4% | +$5,824 | 15W3L | 83.3% |
| WTA17 picks | -2.25u | -13.2% | -$2,246 | 10W7L | 58.8% |
| College Football15 picks | -5.82u | -38.8% | -$5,817 | 6W9L | 40.0% |
| LoL12 picks | +2.00u | +16.7% | +$1,999 | 9W3L | 75.0% |
| Serie A11 picks | +0.40u | +3.6% | +$400 | 7W4L | 63.6% |
| UEFA Champions League9 picks | -1.15u | -12.7% | -$1,146 | 6W3L | 66.7% |
| UFC9 picks | +1.82u | +20.3% | +$1,823 | 7W2L | 77.8% |
| WNBA9 picks | +1.47u | +16.4% | +$1,474 | 7W2L | 77.8% |
| Bundesliga8 picks | +0.24u | +3.0% | +$240 | 5W3L | 62.5% |
| Valorant7 picks | -0.80u | -11.4% | -$797 | 4W3L | 57.1% |
| Dota 24 picks | +1.16u | +29.1% | +$1,163 | 3W1L | 75.0% |
| Ligue 14 picks | -1.00u | -25.1% | -$1,003 | 2W2L | 50.0% |
| NBA4 picks | -2.76u | -68.9% | -$2,758 | 1W3L | 25.0% |
| EFL Championship3 picks | +0.44u | +14.6% | +$439 | 2W1L | 66.7% |
| EFL Cup3 picks | +2.30u | +76.8% | +$2,305 | 3W0L | 100.0% |
| NHL3 picks | +0.58u | +19.3% | +$580 | 2W1L | 66.7% |
| UEFA Europa League3 picks | +0.00u | +0.0% | -$1 | 2W1L | 66.7% |
| Concacaf Nations League2 picks | +0.62u | +30.8% | +$616 | 2W0L | 100.0% |
| Fifa Friendly2 picks | +2.93u | +146.4% | +$2,927 | 2W0L | 100.0% |
| Saudi Professional League2 picks | -0.20u | -9.9% | -$198 | 1W1L | 50.0% |
| Super Lig2 picks | -0.74u | -37.1% | -$742 | 1W1L | 50.0% |
| Brasileirao Serie A1 pick | +1.82u | +181.7% | +$1,817 | 1W0L | 100.0% |
| Club Friendlies1 pick | +1.20u | +119.8% | +$1,198 | 1W0L | 100.0% |
| Cricket1 pick | +0.57u | +57.5% | +$575 | 1W0L | 100.0% |
| FA Community Shield1 pick | -1.00u | -100.0% | -$1,000 | 0W1L | 0.0% |
| MLS1 pick | +1.11u | +110.5% | +$1,105 | 1W0L | 100.0% |
| Profit |
|---|
| Record |
|---|
| Win rate |
|---|
| Longshot (<35c)6 picks | +3.86u | +64.4% | +$3,864 | 3W3L | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35-50c95 picks | +11.78u | +12.4% | +$11,782 | 48W47L | 50.5% |
| 50-65c158 picks | -3.06u | -1.9% | -$3,060 | 88W70L | 55.7% |
| 65-80c95 picks | +7.80u | +8.2% | +$7,802 | 74W21L | 77.9% |
| Favorite (80c+)53 picks | +2.72u | +5.1% | +$2,724 | 49W4L | 92.5% |
| 92 |
| -0.6 pp |
| Category | MLB | 73 | +0.1 pp |
|---|
| Category | UEFA Nations League | 47 | -0.8 pp |
|---|
| Category | CS2 | 34 | +0.1 pp |
|---|
| Category | ATP | 28 | -0.1 pp |
|---|
| Category | Premier League | 23 | 0.0 pp |
|---|
| Category | LaLiga | 22 | -0.3 pp |
|---|
| Category | NFL | 22 | -0.4 pp |
|---|
| Category | FIFA World Cup | 17 | -0.2 pp |
|---|
| Category | WTA | 15 | 0.0 pp |
|---|
| Category | College Football | 14 | -0.1 pp |
|---|
| Category | LoL | 12 | -0.1 pp |
|---|
| Category | Serie A | 11 | -0.4 pp |
|---|
| Category | UEFA Champions League | 9 | -0.2 pp |
|---|
| Category | UFC | 9 | +0.4 pp |
|---|
| Category | WNBA | 9 | -0.4 pp |
|---|
| Category | Bundesliga | 8 | -0.9 pp |
|---|
| Category | Valorant | 7 | -0.4 pp |
|---|
| Category | Dota 2 | 4 | -- |
|---|
| Category | Ligue 1 | 4 | -- |
|---|
| Category | NBA | 4 | -- |
|---|
| Category | EFL Championship | 3 | -- |
|---|
| Category | EFL Cup | 3 | -- |
|---|
| Category | NHL | 3 | -- |
|---|
| Category | UEFA Europa League | 3 | -- |
|---|
| Category | Concacaf Nations League | 2 | -- |
|---|
| Category | Fifa Friendly | 2 | -- |
|---|
| Category | Saudi Professional League | 2 | -- |
|---|
| Category | Super Lig | 2 | -- |
|---|
| Category | Brasileirao Serie A | 1 | -- |
|---|
| Category | Club Friendlies | 1 | -- |
|---|
| Category | Cricket | 1 | -- |
|---|
| Category | FA Community Shield | 1 | -- |
|---|
| Category | MLS | 1 | -- |
|---|
| Entry price | Longshot (<35c) | 6 | -1.5 pp |
|---|
| Entry price | 35-50c | 93 | -0.2 pp |
|---|
| Entry price | 50-65c | 154 | -0.1 pp |
|---|
| Entry price | 65-80c | 93 | -0.5 pp |
|---|
| Entry price | Favorite (80c+) | 51 | -0.1 pp |
|---|
| Month | Jun 2026 | 6 | +0.7 pp |
|---|
| Month | Jul 2026 | 31 | -0.4 pp |
|---|
| Month | Aug 2026 | 93 | +0.2 pp |
|---|
| Month | Sep 2026 | 179 | -0.3 pp |
|---|
| Month | Oct 2026 | 88 | -0.7 pp |
|---|
| Window | All time | 397 | -0.3 pp |
|---|
| Window | Last 30 days | 226 | -0.4 pp |
|---|
| Window | Last 14 days | 135 | -0.5 pp |
|---|
| Window | Last 7 days | 79 | -0.7 pp |
|---|
Full historical ledger
407 settled picks
250 without a sealed hash, 2 during a recorded outage, 9 with a hash first public after kickoff. 1 void refunded its stake.
Git author-dated before kickoff
147 picks
86 wins, 60 losses, 1 void; 3.5% ROI before fees.
Ledger snapshot through 2026-10-08. The site record above has 407 settled picks and may be newer. This git-dated sample is too small to establish a repeatable edge. This cohort uses writer-controlled git author dates, not independent witness times. New Seal commits have separately verifiable signed receipts; only a receipt witnessed before kickoff strengthens timing evidence. Returns assume every pick filled at its frozen price and exclude fees.
