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Basics

Event contract

An event contract is a contract whose value depends on whether a specific future event happens. Traditional derivatives track an asset price. Event contracts track real-world outcomes: election results, weather, economic data releases. In the United States the CFTC regulates them, and they trade on CFTC-licensed designated contract markets.

What an event contract is

An event contract pays out on whether a stated real-world event happens. The underlying is not an asset price but a fact: an inflation print, an election result, a weather threshold. It settles at $1.00 or $0.00 against the stated criteria.

The term carries legal weight in the United States. Event contracts trade on CFTC-designated contract markets, which makes them regulated derivatives rather than gambling products, and that classification decides who may offer them and to whom.

Regulated venue versus on-chain market

A regulated exchange lists event contracts with a defined settlement process and named contract criteria. Polymarket's global market runs on-chain with resolution through an optimistic oracle, where a proposed outcome can be disputed and escalated.

The practical differences follow from that: how disputes are handled, who can access the venue, what happens to a position when the wording of a question turns out to be ambiguous, and where the counterparty risk sits.

Where 0xinsider uses event contracts

0xinsider covers Polymarket, where every trade clears on-chain and carries a wallet address. That is what lets it grade the trader behind a position; a regulated exchange keeps trader identity private, so the same question cannot be asked of its order flow. The comparison page covers how an event contract differs from a sportsbook wager on pricing, house edge, and regulation.

Worked example

You buy an event contract 'Will CPI exceed 3.5%?' at $0.40. If January's CPI comes in at 3.7%, your contract settles at $1. You net $0.60.

Create contract
Trade opens
Event occurs
Payout

Event contract on 0xinsider

Prediction markets vs sports betting

Pricing, house edge, and US regulation of an event contract against a sportsbook bet.

Live feed

Event contract on live data

The leaderboard ranks S, A, and B wallets, graded mostly on realized profit. The live feed lists large Polymarket trades as they fill on Pro, and 24 hours later without it.

Picks and market activity

Read the published picks or follow large trades. The free feed runs 24 hours behind; Pro has no delay.