A fragile two-week ceasefire took effect on April 7 after U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan, halting offensive operations while both sides kept forces positioned near the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump's April 12 warning that U.S. forces remain "locked and loaded" has kept traders skeptical of an imminent peace announcement, with April 15 still priced at 4c and April 21 at 16c Yes.
No qualifying public declaration has materialized from either government, so traders still treat a near-term peace headline as low probability.
Market pages now include Market Notes: a fast read on what is actually driving the contract price. Sports markets can surface matchup context and form, while politics and macro contracts can summarize the catalysts, timeline, and conditions each side needs to resolve. You get the setup before you trade, not after the move is already obvious.